Goodman: Is Alabama football in ‘real trouble?’

Alabama football has been one of the premier programs in college football for over a decade. Under the guidance of legendary head coach Nick Saban, the Crimson Tide have amassed numerous national championships, consistently been in the College Football Playoff race, and have produced countless NFL stars. However, recent questions have arisen: Is Alabama football in “real trouble”?

This article will analyze Alabama’s current football status, considering several key factors: the performance of the team in recent seasons, recruiting trends, coaching changes, and the competitive landscape of college football. We will explore whether the team is facing a genuine crisis or merely experiencing a temporary setback in an otherwise dominant era.

1. The Legacy of Nick Saban

To fully understand the current state of Alabama football, it’s important to appreciate the historical context of the program. Nick Saban took over as head coach in 2007 and immediately transformed Alabama from a middle-of-the-pack SEC team to a national powerhouse. Over the next 15 years, Saban led the team to six national championships, including titles in 2009, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2017, and 2020, cementing his status as one of the greatest coaches in the history of college football.

The Crimson Tide’s sustained excellence under Saban was built on a few key pillars: elite recruiting, a balanced and physical style of play, and a relentless work ethic. For over a decade, Alabama has been a machine, dominating the SEC and regularly appearing in the College Football Playoff.

But in recent years, questions about the sustainability of Saban’s success have emerged. Is this simply a bump in the road for one of the most successful college football programs, or is the era of dominance beginning to unravel?

2. Recent Performance and the Decline of Alabama’s Dominance

While Alabama remains a top-tier program, recent seasons have raised eyebrows. Since the 2020 season, which culminated in a National Championship appearance (a 52-24 loss to LSU), Alabama’s performance has been less than dominant. Despite a 12-2 record in 2021, the team suffered two losses, including a stunning defeat to Texas A&M. While Alabama remained in the Playoff hunt, they were not the juggernaut that they once were. In 2022, Alabama had another two-loss season, with losses to Tennessee and LSU. The team’s inability to make the Playoff in 2022 was seen as a significant disappointment.

Critics have pointed to several factors contributing to Alabama’s dip in performance:

1. Quarterback Play: Historically, Alabama has been known for its dominant defenses and running games. However, in the modern era of college football, elite quarterback play is more important than ever. Alabama’s quarterbacks, such as Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones, were outstanding, but the team has struggled to find consistent play from the position in the past few seasons. Quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts, Bryce Young, and others have shown flashes of brilliance but have been inconsistent at times, which has led to difficulties in securing big wins.

2. Defensive Slippage: While Alabama’s defense is still among the best in the country, it hasn’t been as dominant in recent seasons. Saban’s “defense-first” philosophy has been challenged by more explosive offenses, and Alabama’s defense has had to adjust. The loss of several key players to the NFL, such as linebacker Will Anderson Jr. and cornerback Patrick Surtain II, has left holes in the lineup that have been difficult to fill.

3. Special Teams and Turnovers: Special teams have been an Achilles’ heel in some of Alabama’s recent losses, particularly in high-stakes games. Turnovers have also been a problem, especially in tight contests where one mistake can swing the game’s momentum.

4. Inconsistent Coaching Decisions: Although Nick Saban is widely regarded as one of the best coaches in college football history, some have questioned his coaching decisions in recent years. Saban is known for his ability to adapt and evolve, but some critics argue that he has been slow to fully embrace some of the newer trends in college football, such as the up-tempo offense and advanced analytics. Saban’s insistence on sticking with a more traditional approach has sometimes limited the team’s potential to capitalize on opportunities.

Despite these challenges, Alabama has remained competitive. The team has consistently recruited well, and their losses have often come in closely contested games. However, the fact remains that they have not been as dominant as they were in the earlier years of the Saban era.

3. Recruiting: Is Alabama Losing Its Edge?

One of the primary reasons for Alabama’s success under Nick Saban has been its ability to recruit at an elite level. The program has consistently had top-five recruiting classes, attracting the best high school talent across the country. This has allowed the team to reload year after year, replacing NFL-bound players with more elite prospects.

However, in recent years, the landscape of college football recruiting has changed. More schools, particularly in the SEC, have caught up to Alabama in terms of talent acquisition. Georgia, for example, has emerged as a dominant recruiting force under head coach Kirby Smart, challenging Alabama for top recruits. Other programs like Ohio State, Clemson, and even Texas A&M have made significant strides in recruiting, making it harder for Alabama to maintain its traditional edge.

In addition, the rise of the NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) era has introduced new challenges in college football recruiting. Alabama has historically relied on its football pedigree and Saban’s reputation to attract top recruits, but NIL deals have shifted the power dynamics. Programs with larger financial resources or more aggressive NIL strategies, such as Texas and USC, have been able to lure away some of Alabama’s top targets.

That being said, Alabama remains one of the top recruiting programs in the nation. However, the competition is fiercer than ever before, and this shift in the recruiting landscape has added another layer of pressure on Saban and his staff.

4. The Coaching Carousel and Staff Changes

Nick Saban has long been known for his ability to maintain consistency and stability on his coaching staff. Over the years, Saban has developed a reputation for being able to replace departing coaches without missing a beat. However, in recent seasons, Alabama has seen several key members of its coaching staff leave for head coaching jobs elsewhere.

For example, offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian left for the head coaching position at Texas in 2021, and defensive coordinator Pete Golding left for Ole Miss in 2023. While Saban has brought in capable replacements, such as Bill O’Brien and Kevin Steele, these changes have contributed to a sense of instability, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. It can take time for new coaching staff to adapt to Saban’s system, and this has added another layer of uncertainty to the program.

Furthermore, Saban’s ability to adapt to changing trends in college football has been tested as offensive coordinators and assistant coaches bring new philosophies to the program. While Saban is a master at incorporating new ideas, he is also known for being stubborn and sticking to his principles. This push and pull between innovation and tradition will likely continue to shape the program moving forward.

5. The State of the SEC and National Landscape

Another significant factor to consider when evaluating Alabama’s future is the state of the SEC and the overall national landscape of college football. The SEC has long been the most competitive conference in college football, but in recent years, its dominance has only grown stronger.

Georgia’s rise under Kirby Smart has been one of the most significant developments in the college football world. The Bulldogs have won two of the last three national championships, and they appear to be a rising force in the SEC for years to come. Alabama’s once-unassailable grip on the conference has been loosened, with Georgia now emerging as the dominant power.

Additionally, programs like LSU, Auburn, and Texas A&M have also made significant strides in recruiting and performance, making the SEC more competitive than ever before. While Alabama is still one of the top teams in the conference, it now faces stiff competition not only within the SEC but also on the national stage.

Moreover, the changing dynamics of the College Football Playoff are worth noting. With the expansion of the Playoff field to 12 teams, the path to a national championship will be more complicated, and Alabama will face even more competition for one of the coveted spots.

6. Is Alabama in ‘Real Trouble’?

With all these factors in mind, the question remains: Is Alabama football in “real trouble”?

The short answer is no—Alabama is not in imminent danger of falling into obscurity. The program remains one of the best in the country, and Nick Saban is still at the helm. However, it is clear that the Crimson Tide is facing significant challenges. The program is no longer the dominant force it once was, and competition from other SEC schools and nationally has increased. Alabama is no longer the automatic contender it once was, and that’s something the program must adjust to.

While Saban has proven time and again that he is one of the best coaches in college football, his future is not guaranteed, and the program may face a post-Saban transition at some point. The pressure to maintain success and compete at the highest level is only growing.

Ultimately, Alabama football is at a crossroads. The program is still among the elite, but it faces heightened competition, both within the SEC and nationally. Whether or not Alabama is truly in “real trouble” will depend on how the program navigates these challenges in the coming years. Saban’s ability to adapt, the recruiting efforts moving forward, and the performance of the team will determine whether Alabama can return to its former dominance or whether the program will experience a decline.

While it’s too early to say that Alabama is in real trouble, one thing is certain: The road ahead will not be as easy as it has been in the past. The program will need to evolve and adapt to continue competing at the highest level. The coming seasons will be crucial in determining whether Alabama can recapture its former glory or w

hether it will be forced to adjust to a new reality in college football.