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Celtic

Honest Mistakes – There’s Been An Intervention

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Two weeks of fixtures for the high price you pay to access all the data on this site – insert a sarky emoji here.

This takes us up to the Scottish Cup matches and both sides have played 29 SPFL matches.

The impact of big calls being incorrect can then be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.

28/02/24 Celtic vs Dundee

Incident 1

Referee Matthew McDermid
Game Minute 76th
Score At Time 7-0
Incident Robertson fouls Johnston
Outcome Foul to Celtic and 2nd YC to Robertson
Evidence BBC iPlayer – Sportscene – Premiership Highlights 2023/24: 28/02/2024 

At 36:38

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on-field decision: Foul to Celtic and Robertson shown 2nd yellow card 

Johnston delivers a cross into the box before getting caught late from the sliding challenge of the Dundee player. There does appear to be contact from this late challenge that is reckless in nature as his trailing foot hits Johnston’s standing le after the ball has been delivered.

Verdict: CORRECT DECISION

Expected Points 

Outcome

No impact

28/02/24 Kilmarnock vs The Rangers

Incident 1

Referee David Dickinson
Game Minute 11th
Score At Time 0-0
Incident Lundstram blocks a cross into the box
Outcome Penalty awarded to Kilmarnock for hand ball
Evidence BBC iPlayer – Sportscene – Premiership Highlights 2023/24: 28/02/2024 

At 17:17

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: Handball awarded and penalty given to Kilmarnock 

Lundstram jumps and spins with his left arm to block the cross and the ball does seem to hit him on the elbow. Even though his arm isn’t significantly extended outwards, there does appear to be an element of unnatural positioning of the arm and body shape as a result of this spin. Once the ball hits his elbow his arm, it then seems to extend out even further, although this happens immediately after the ball hits the elbow.

Given the unnecessary body spin and loose left arm as a result, I would support the call to award this as a handball offence.

Expected Points 

Outcome

No impact

Incident 2

Referee David Dickinson
Game Minute 39th
Score At Time 1-0
Incident Polworth tries to run onto a Diomande back pass
Outcome No decision
Evidence BBC iPlayer – Sportscene – Premiership Highlights 2023/24: 28/02/2024 

At 19:16

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on-field decision: No foul committed 

As Polworth attempts to latch onto an under-hit back pass, he claims that Diomande pulls him back as he runs passed the Rangers man. I would categorise this as justifiable contact from the defender as he puts his arm out for only a split second and there is no obvious pulling-back motion committed. His left arm comes out slightly to block Polworth, but I would say this just about sits within what is deemed to be expected player-on-player contact.

Verdict: CORRECT DECISION

Expected Points 

Outcome

No impact

Incident 3

Referee David Dickinson
Game Minute 79th
Score At Time 1-2
Incident Donnelly goes down in the box
Outcome No decision
Evidence BBC iPlayer – Sportscene – Premiership Highlights 2023/24: 28/02/2024 

At 22:43

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: No foul committed 

Donnelly & a Rangers defender both compete to get to the ball first, it looks like the Rangers defender is just behind Donnelly who feels contact and goes down in the box looking for a penalty.

I do not see the defender make any obvious attempt to tackle or challenge Donnelly and certainly nothing that warrants a clear infringement. Again, I feel we are in the realm of expected, justifiable contact to compete for the ball and space around the ball.

No foul was committed.

Expected Points 

Outcome

No impact

Incident 4

Referee David Dickinson
Game Minute 87th
Score At Time 1-2
Incident Ball hits Findlay in the box
Outcome No decision
Evidence BBC iPlayer – Sportscene – Premiership Highlights 2023/24: 28/02/2024 

At 23:21

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: No foul committed 

Dessers and Findlay both go to play the ball and the ball bounces up and clearly catches the defender accidentally on the hand.

However, this contact occurs due to the ball bouncing up which gives Findlay virtually zero reaction time. His arms appear to be in a very natural position as he challenges the Rangers forward and I would have been bewildered if anyone had deemed this to be a handball offence.

Verdict: CORRECT DECISION

Expected Points 

Outcome

No impact

02/03/24 The Rangers vs Motherwell

Incident 1

Referee Alan Muir
Game Minute 35th
Score At Time 0-1
Incident Carey and McCausland challenge for the ball
Outcome Foul to TRFC
Evidence https://x.com/ScotlandSky/status/1764625959561396567?s=20 

At 0:43

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: Foul to Rangers, no further action after review. 

Carey and McCausland both compete for a loose ball and Carey fully commits to a sliding tackle, which sees McCausland fall to the floor injured in the aftermath.

At full speed, my instinct was a good strong challenge that saw Carey robustly win the ball first, before his follow-through made contact with the Rangers man. Upon watching the replays, I stick by my opinion that this is a strong but fair challenge.

I suspect that if McCausland fully commits to the 50/50 challenge he is ironically, less likely to injury himself. It appears that at the last second, he changes his mind to commit to the tackle (in old school terminology – he doesn’t fancy it) and turns his body and dangles his right leg out.

Carey’s follow through after winning the ball, then catches this loose leg of McCausland, which wouldn’t have happened if the Rangers had made a stronger effort to tackle Carey.

I find it hard to look to penalise Carey in this particular scenario and actually disagree with the on-field decision to award a free kick in the first place.

Verdict: INCORRECT DECISION. No foul was committed.

Expected Points 

Outcome

No impact

Incident 2

Referee Alan Muir
Game Minute 56th
Score At Time 0-1
Incident Silva goes over in the box
Outcome No decision; Penalty to TRFC upon VAR review
Evidence BBC iPlayer – Sportscene – Premiership Highlights 2023/24: 02/03/2024 

At 6:10

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: No foul but after VAR review, penalty awarded to Rangers 

Silva breaks into the box and under the challenge from Casey & O’Donnell goes to ground. I suspect the referee is unsighted to O’Connell’s challenge and feels body on body block from Casey, on its own, is not enough to warrant the foul.

However, on review, you can see that Silva plays the ball first before O’Donnell’s sliding tackle catches him & not the ball, a split second before Casey collides with the Rangers forward. For me, the sliding defender makes no contact on the ball but does catch Silva and a foul is committed.

Verdict: CORRECT DECISION to award the penalty

Expected Points 

Outcome

No impact

03/03/24 Hearts vs Celtic

Incident 1

Referee Don Robertson
Game Minute 11th
Score At Time 0-0
Incident Yang goes down in the box
Outcome Penalty to Celtic
Evidence BBC iPlayer – Sportscene – Premiership Highlights 2023/24: Hearts v Celtic 

At 3:00

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: Penalty awarded to Celtic 

Yang looks to get in behind the Hearts defender Cochrane and they come together shortly after. Yang goes to ground and a penalty is awarded to Celtic.

At full speed my initial reaction was that there was expected contact between defender & attacker and no clear foul had been committed by the Hearts man. I thought Yang stepped across the Hearts defender and initiated the contact by impacting Cochrane’s running stride.

However, on reviewing the replay, it does appear that Cochrane does actually stretch to play the ball and as Yang has got his body in front of Cochrane, the defender’s stretch makes no contact on the ball but clips Yang’s right foot.

On that basis, I’m happy to support the on-field decision to award the penalty.

Verdict: CORRECT DECISION to award the penalty

Expected Points 

Outcome

No impact

Incident 2

Referee Don Robertson
Game Minute 16th
Score At Time 0-0
Incident Yang and Cochrane challenge for the ball
Outcome Foul to Hearts and YC to Yang upgraded to RC after VAR review
Evidence BBC iPlayer – Sportscene – Premiership Highlights 2023/24: Hearts v Celtic 

At 4:09

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: Foul to Hearts and Yang cautioned. After VAR review this is upgraded to a red card to Yang. 

Yang attempts to control a high ball with his foot as Cochrane attempts to head the ball. At full speed it appears that Cochrane wins the ball first before Yang’s studs catch him in the face.

I do have some sympathy for Yang as he doesn’t seem to be aware of how close Cochrane’s head is as he attempts to play the ball.

However, Yang’s right foot is fully extended at neck height as Cochrane arrives to head the ball. Once Yang makes contact with Cochrane’s head at this height, I would say this falls in the territory of serious foul play and endangering a player’s safety.

On balance, I would support the decision to upgrade the foul to a sending-off offence.

Verdict: CORRECT DECISION to issue the red card for the offence.

Expected Points 

Outcome

No impact

Incident 3

Referee Don Robertson
Game Minute 43rd
Score At Time 0-0
Incident Johnston clears the ball and it hits Iwata
Outcome No decision; Penalty to Hearts upon VAR review
Evidence BBC iPlayer – Sportscene – Premiership Highlights 2023/24: Hearts v Celtic 

At 8:12

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: No foul, but then after VAR review, penalty awarded to Hearts for a hand ball offence. 

Harsh decision to deem the accidental hand ball as a punishable hand ball offence. Even though Iwata’s arm is slightly extended, he is in a jumping motion and gets barged mid-flight by his teammate. This then causes his arm to involuntarily extend in mid-jump.

I feel this is a justifiable body movement specific to that situation. As such I disagree with the penalty decision and feel the referee’s initial ‘no foul’ decision should have been the expected outcome.

Verdict: INCORRECT DECISION. No foul handball offence was committed.

Expected Points 

Outcome

Celtic -0.54 xPts

Summary

My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.

In the main another good week for the officials.

However, John Beaton’s decision to ask Don Robertson to overturn a non-decision to a handball penalty for Hearts was not only inexplicable but potentially material to a very tight and lucrative title race. Given the game state and the fact Hearts were struggling to break down a 10-man Celtic in front of an increasingly agitated home crowd, it carried additional weight.

In terms of the overall position:

The Rangers have 0.53 MORE points and Celtic 0.83 less than expected due to the impact of Honest Mistakes. The Rangers are benefiting by an estimated 1.36 xPts due to the impact of honest mistakes.

The Rangers lead by two points after 29 matches.

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