By Drew Holbrook

For many college basketball fans, March Madness is all about the thrill of the unexpected. And in recent years, few programs have been more prone to early-round upsets than the Kentucky Wildcats. Despite boasting a rich tradition and a roster filled with talent, the Wildcats have become a magnet for shocking first-round exits. With past stunners like Saint Peter’s in 2022 and Oakland in 2024, the question now looms—will history repeat itself?

According to The Athletic, Kentucky is once again a prime candidate to be an upset victim in this year’s NCAA Tournament. But why do analysts believe the Wildcats are at risk, and what factors could contribute to another early exit?

A History of Early Exits

Kentucky’s recent tournament struggles have been well-documented. The Wildcats, once a near-lock for deep tournament runs, have struggled under the weight of high expectations. The loss to 15-seed Saint Peter’s in 2022 was one of the most stunning upsets in tournament history, and the trend continued when 14-seed Oakland knocked out Kentucky in 2024. Both games exposed a pattern: a talented but inexperienced squad faltering under pressure against a scrappy, fearless opponent.

Why The Athletic Sees Trouble Again

Several key factors make Kentucky vulnerable in 2025, according to The Athletic:

1. Inexperience and Youth

John Calipari’s teams have traditionally been built around one-and-done talent—freshmen with NBA potential who are still adjusting to the college game. While this approach has led to success in the past, it has also left Kentucky susceptible to mistakes and breakdowns, especially against disciplined, veteran-led mid-major teams.

2. Defensive Concerns

This year’s Kentucky squad has struggled on the defensive end, particularly in guarding the three-point line. If they match up against a mid-major team that shoots well from deep—similar to Oakland last year—they could be in serious trouble.

3. Turnover Woes

Kentucky has been inconsistent when it comes to ball control, and turnovers have cost them in critical moments throughout the season. Upset-minded teams thrive on converting turnovers into easy points, and Kentucky’s weaknesses in this area could be exploited.

4. Mental Toughness Under Pressure

While Kentucky is loaded with athleticism, its ability to handle adversity in a win-or-go-home environment remains a concern. Recent tournament history suggests that when things get tight, the Wildcats have struggled to respond.

Can Kentucky Prove the Critics Wrong?

While the Wildcats may be labeled as “upset bait” once again, they still have the talent to prove their doubters wrong. If Calipari can get his young team to lock in defensively and avoid costly mistakes, Kentucky could make a deep run. However, until they do, skepticism will remain—and for good reason.

As the first round approaches, all eyes will be on Kentucky. Will they finally shake off their recent March Madness demons, or will they fall victim to yet another Cinderella story? The answer will unfold on the court, but for now, the Wildcats remain one of the most intriguing—and vulnerable—teams in the field.