4 Things to Watch as the East Finals Return to Indiana for Game 6: Knicks-Pacers

Will the Knicks replicate their defensive performance from Game 5? Is it possible for the Pacers to impede Brunson or Towns? Is the home-court advantage significant?

Through the first five games of the Eastern Conference Finals, Jalen Brunson has averaged 33.0 points and 5.4 assists.

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The Knicks were granted an additional 48 minutes of basketball and a return voyage to Indianapolis.

In Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals, the Knicks delivered their most impressive defensive performance of the series (and potentially the entire season) as they faced elimination for the first time. They eventually slowed down a Pacers offense that had scored over 120 points per 100 possessions in 8 of its 14 games prior to Thursday.

In NBA history, only 4% of teams that have encountered a 3-1 deficit have recovered to win a best-of-seven series. However, the Knicks have successfully completed Step 1. Both of these teams are capable of winning on any given night, and the Knicks will qualify for the NBA Finals by winning two additional games.

The Pacers require only one more point, and their subsequent opportunity will be to return to their home court for Game 6 on Saturday (8 ET, TNT).

Please observe the following four items as Indiana attempts to secure a trip to Oklahoma City once more.

1. Is it possible for the Knicks to replicate their defensive performance?

The Knicks’ defensive effort is evident from the opening minutes of Game 5, and they maintain a consistent pace to impede the Pacers as they play.

The Pacers’ offensive end of the floor has been the focal point of this series, as they have averaged 126.1 points per 100 possessions in their three victories and 101.0 points per 100 possessions in their two defeats. The offense of the Knicks has been significantly more consistent in the past five games.

Indiana scored only 94 points on 97 possessions in Game 5, which was the Pacers’ most offensively challenged game of the postseason.

The Knicks did not exert as much pressure on them in the final minutes of the shot clock as they did in Game 3. The Pacers’ rate of 19% shots in the final seven seconds of the clock, as indicated by Second Spectrum tracking, is marginally lower than their rate during the first four games.
The Pacers’ ball movement was more extensive than in any other game in this series. They registered 384 passes per 24 minutes of possession, which is significantly higher than their previous peak of 335 passes per 24 minutes (Game 4).
The Pacers’ failure to capitalize on their initial actions may have contributed to the additional ball movement.

In the middle of the second quarter, Aaron Nesmith established a screen for Tyrese Haliburton, which allowed him to move into space. However, Karl-Anthony Towns rotated and eliminated the advantage. Jalen Brunson subsequently transitioned to Towns’ man, Myles Turner, necessitating that the Pacers attempt another shot:

The defense of the Knicks during the fifth game

The Knicks demonstrated increased effort and committed fewer errors. Their rotations and switching were executed flawlessly. The Pacers’ offensive performance could have been improved; however, their shooting may be regressing after reaching the highest eFG% in NBA playoff history during their initial 12 games (through Game 2 of this series).

If the Knicks are able to replicate their defensive performance on Saturday, or if the Pacers are unable to capitalize on open opportunities, it is possible that Madison Square Garden will host another Game 7.

2. Is it possible for the Pacers to impede Brunson or Towns?

New York never trailed Indiana in a must-win Game 5 at MSG, as Jalen Brunson scores 14 of his 32 points in the first quarter.

The Pacers’ offensive efficacy during the first four games obscured the fact that they were not generating a significant number of defensive stops. The Knicks have tallied 117.8 points per 100 possessions through Game 5, which is 7.1 more than they scored in the first two rounds. Additionally, Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby have a combined success rate of 4 for 24 (17%) on corner 3-pointers.

Brunson and Towns have been particularly problematic in Indiana. Together, they have been the two most prolific scorers in this series, averaging 58.4 points on a true shooting percentage of 64.6%. This represents an increase from 49.4 points on 57.6% in the first two rounds.

Nesmith had some success defending Brunson during the first four games; however, in Game 5, Brunson shot 5-for-5 against him. The Knicks’ star was aggressive in the early stages of the contest and the shot clock.

Nesmith exerted full-court pressure on Brunson in the early stages of the third quarter, which Brunson capitalized on.

Aaron Nesmith drives against Jalen Brunson

Towns was defended more by Pascal Siakam than by Turner for the first time in Game 5. Neither of the Pacers’ matchups has been favorable; however, the Siakam matchup enables Towns to play more expansively, which is one of the reasons the Knicks held a 26-point advantage in the paint (60-34) on Thursday.

Karl-Anthony Towns’ rebound and put-back

The Knicks scored 29 points on 19 opportunities (1.53 per attempt) in Game 5 when either of their leaders were doubled, despite the fact that the Pacers have had some success when sending a double-team at Brunson or Towns, according to Second Spectrum.

3. The possession battle is consistently significant.

Charles Barkley believes that the Pacers ‘played contented’ instead of striving to eliminate the Knicks, which resulted in them losing Game 5 in New York.

Each of the initial four games was relatively evenly matched in terms of possession. The Knicks secured a greater number of offensive rebounds, while the Pacers committed fewer turnovers. Indiana had a plus-4 advantage in shooting opportunities (field goal attempts or visits to the line) prior to Thursday.

However, in Game 5, the Pacers were granted 12 fewer shooting opportunities than the New Yorkers. This was their most favorable differential of the playoffs, as the Knicks once again emerged victorious in the battle for the boards and, for the first time in the series, committed fewer turnovers than the Pacers.

The Pacers’ end of the floor was the most significant distinction, as it has been throughout the game. Their 20 turnovers were a postseason record and aided the Knicks in accumulating 24 transition points, a series high for New York.

In four of the five games, the Pacers have been able to obtain higher-quality shots; however, they are unable to take as many shots as they did in Game 5. It is imperative that both teams prioritize ball management and rebounding during the possession game.

4. Is the home-court advantage significant?

In addition to defeating the Knicks in Game 7 at Madison Square Garden last year, the Pacers have won two of the three games played in New York. Losing Game 6 would not necessarily indicate their demise. Nine of the last 14 Game 7s have been won by road teams, and either team has the potential to win any game in this series.

However, they would undoubtedly relish the opportunity to administer their affairs at home on Saturday. Indiana has not suffered consecutive losses since March 10, and they are determined to maintain this trend on the most significant stage of their career. A further defeat would rejuvenate the Knicks and instill them with confidence.

The Knicks, like the Pacers, have a 6-2 record on the road in these playoffs; however, they have been statistically superior at home. The Knicks have secured all six of those victories by a margin of six points or less, limiting their opponents to 46 points on 59 critical possessions (0.78 per game) during that span.

Another crucial situation may arise on Saturday. Each possession is significant.

NBA.com employs John Schuhmann as a senior statistician. You can contact him via email at this link, access his archive at this link, and follow him on X.

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