Game Preview: FSU Basketball at No. 2 Duke Blue Devils

The Florida State Seminoles have just three regular-season games remaining in Leonard Hamilton’s tenure, and none of them will be easy. Especially this next one, as they travel to play arguably the best team in the country: the Duke Blue Devils.

Duke has been a wagon this season, losing just three games by a combined 15 points. This will be a difficult challenge for the Seminoles, but how cool would it be for Leonard Hamilton to pick up another signature win of this magnitude in his final season?

This game will be live from Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham at 7 p.m. EST on the ACC Network. North Carolina.

Heading to the beach, the lake, or just out and about and in need of some spirited swag? This Florida State Seminoles Team Color Straw Hat is here to help! / FOCO

#2 Duke Blue Devils Breakdown (25-3 Overall, 16-1 ACC)

News flash: Duke is really good. Like, the best they’ve been in the KenPom era good, and they’ve had some great teams. Their offensive efficiency is the highest they’ve had since KenPom’s tracking started in the 1996-97 season, and their defense is the second-best they’ve had since the 2010-11 season. This team is the perfect blend of elite freshmen and talented transfers, all while being the largest team in the country.

While I’m still not sold on Jon Scheyer as an Xs and Os coach, he’s an elite recruiter, and this team may be so talented that it may not matter. While only losing three games to this point in the season is wildly impressive, they’ve only played in six games that finished with a point differential of less than 10. That’s astounding. The average point margin in ACC play for Duke has been 20.2 PPG. I’m running out of words to describe how insane that is.

Cooper Flagg is the favorite for ACC Player of the Year (and Freshman of the Year), averaging 19.4 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1.5 SPG, and 1.1 BPG while shooting 49.1% from the floor and 37.5% from three. At 6’9″, he’s a hard player to match up against, though Taylor Bol Bowen might be as good of a defender as you could ask, but FSU’s switches will take him away from that matchup often.

Kon Knueppel has been much more important than I would’ve figured coming into the season, as he’s averaging 13.5 PPG while shooting 46.1% from the floor and 39.6% from three. He’s an elite shooter with size at 6’7″.

Khaman Maluach is a rebounding machine, and while his base numbers look pedestrian at 8.1 PPG and 6.1 RPG, his offensive rebounding rate of 16.4% is top ten nationally, as is his two-point percentage of 75.6%. Duke just doesn’t miss a lot of shots, but he does a good job of cleaning up those misses.

Sion James is the most productive transfer at 8.1 PPG, 4.0 RPG, and 3.3 APG while shooting 52.7% from the floor and 40.8% from three.

Isaiah Evans is an insane scorer to have as a sixth man, and while he’s only averaging 7.4 PPG, he’s shooting 46.8% from the floor and 47,1% from three. He’d start on 99% of the teams in college basketball. He’s not much of a rebounder or passer, but he’s very similar to Brandon Ingram in his time at Duke.

Caleb Foster will likely have to step in for the injured Tyrese Proctor (11.8 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 2.3 APG), who is dealing with a bone bruise in his knee that he suffered against Miami earlier in the week. Foster has been a fine player, averaging 5.4 PPG, and he filled in admirably for Proctor last game with 10 points. Foster is a former five-star and is the smallest player Duke plays… and he’s listed at 6’5″. This team is massive.

Mason Gillis is the last player you need to know; he is a good glue guy who played a big role in a Final Four team at Purdue last season. His minutes have gone down since then, but he’s a good rebounder and is shooting 35.8% from three. Basically, just assume everyone on this team can shoot.

Here’s a look at Duke’s KenPom analytics for further proof of how insane this team has been playing this season.

Duke just does everything well except get to the free-throw line, which doesn’t matter when they’re scoring as efficiently as they are. They share the ball, they knock down threes, they have size, they rebound well… they have just been a well-oiled machine this season.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (16-12 Overall, 7-10 ACC)

Florida State has to be a little disappointed that they weren’t able to come away with a win against North Carolina on Monday despite shooting 50% from three, only turning it over seven times, and Jamir Watkins having one of his most efficient games of the season. But UNC shot 55.2% from the floor and grabbed 13 offensive rebounds. Had Malique Ewin been able to finish that game, that game could’ve ended much differently, because most of the offensive rebounds UNC got came with Ewin out of the game.

Whether or not Ewin plays will be a massive thing to watch for this game. Florida State needs Ewin’s size and playmaking out of the post. They haven’t released any official designation on him, just Coach Hamilton saying that he has some soreness in his foot. He’s talented enough to make an impact in a game like this if he’s healthy and can deal with the physicality.

This will be an interesting test for Daquan Davis. He’ll be the smallest player on the court by FAR. Duke is the tallest team in the country and won’t play anyone shorter than 6’5″. He’s always willing to go to war, but how is he going to perform against so much length?

Jamir Watkins needs an encore performance of what he had on Monday against UNC when he had 26 points on 7/12 shooting. We know he won’t be scared of a moment like this, but he needs to play his A-game.

Projected Starters

Duke

G: Caleb Foster
G: Kon Knueppel
G: Sion James
F: Cooper Flagg
F: Khaman Maluach

Florida State

G: Daquan Davis
G: Chandler Jackson
F: Jamir Watkins
F: Taylor Bol Bowen
F: Malique Ewin/Alier Maluk

Keys to the Game

Defensive Rebounding

It’s no coincidence that Duke’s three losses have come in the three games they’ve grabbed the fewest percentage of offensive rebounds. Florida State has been a poor defensive-rebounding team in ACC play and is coming off a game where North Carolina torched them on the boards. This isn’t going to be any easier for them, as Khaman Maluach is one of the ten best offensive rebounders in the country. If, and that’s a big if, they can keep him off the glass, they’ll at least have a chance.

Efficient Three-Point Shooting

Duke has only played six single-digit point differential games this season. In five of those games, their opponent shot at least 40% from three. And only seven teams have shot that well against the Blue Devils. Duke’s rims are hard to shoot on because of how much the depth perception is changed with not having stanchions attached to the baskets and how on top of you everything in that arena is. It’s hard to shoot well in Cameron Indoor, and Florida State has been a streaky team. But can they build on Monday’s 10/20 three-point performance from deep? They’ll need it in this game.

Hot Start

I’ve been fortunate enough to see Florida State play four games in Cameron Indoor. It’s a special atmosphere in college basketball that can overwhelm a young team. But if a team comes out and punches Duke in the mouth early, they can take the crowd out of it a little bit. Duke is bound to go on a run at home, but the longer a team delays that, the better chance they’ll have at the end.

Game Prediction

Duke opened as favorites by 23.5 points with an over/under of 147.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

This is a tough matchup for Florida State. Few teams have been able to be competitive with Duke, and as much as I would love to see the Seminoles storm into Cameron Indoor Stadium and get a win in Leonard Hamilton’s final season, it’s unlikely to happen against such a great Duke team.

Duke 89, Florida State 67

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER