Four obvious statistics show that Louisville basketball will win the ACC Tournament.

Here are five obvious statistics that show Louisville basketball will win the ACC Tournament title.

March basketball is the most anticipated time of year for college basketball fans. It’s the finest time of year, and Louisville Cardinals fans are overjoyed to be relevant again.

This week, Louisville basketball will compete against top ACC teams on its largest platform in years. The Cardinals have officially determined their path to the ACC Tournament Championship game, which will begin tomorrow at 7:00 p.m. local time.

The ACC Tournament will be plenty of drama and headlines, but the Cardinals, as the No. 2 seed, are one of the biggest tales heading into the tournament. Nobody expected this swift reversal.

The Cardinals’ ACC Tournament run has the potential to be their most successful in school history. Louisville has a 3-8 record in the ACC Tournament, and if the Cardinals want to create history and win their first title, they must play their best basketball.

Four obvious statistics show that Louisville basketball will win the ACC Tournament.

Louisville basketball has been one of the country’s hottest teams, and they will keep their winning run going. Here are four obvious statistics that show Louisville basketball will win the ACC Tournament title.

4. The greatest ACC head coach.

Pat Kelsey received the ACC Coach of the Year honour, which was well-deserved. Kelsey was chosen to head this ship because of his ability to develop programs, and he has done exactly that. He revived this program after Louisville had a total record of 12-52 during the previous two seasons.

The Cardinals’ ACC record was similarly 5-45 throughout those two years. Pat Kelsey has taken this curriculum to a level that no one can believe. The Cardinals are currently 26-5, a 17-win improvement over previous season that sets a new school record for the most substantial turnaround in school history. Louisville finished with an 18-2 ACC record, setting a new program record for the most ACC and conference wins in a regular season.

The entire nation has embraced Pat Kelsey, and Kelsey will be one of the primary reasons Louisville basketball wins its first ACC Tournament title.

3. The Cardinals’ fatal shooting.

Louisville basketball makes the second most three-pointers in the ACC. This season, the Cardinals have made 299 three-pointers, trailing just Duke, which is ranked 38th in the country.

The Cardinals’ ability to score from downtown is a key factor in their ranking as the second seed. Louisville shoots just 38% from outside the arc, but they make about 10 per game, ranking No. 33 in the country. Louisville has made the most threes in the ACC, with 899 attempts from downtown.

Louisville attempts approximately 30 three-pointers per game, ranking in the top ten in the country. They are headed by Reyne Smith, one of the greatest sharpshooters. The deadly shooter moved from Charleston with Pat Kelsey and quickly established a legacy for himself.

Smith has rapidly become as one of the Cardinals’ national fan favourites. With 104 threes, he has made the second-most in program history in a single season. Smith has the capacity to catch fire, as he also holds the school record for most three-pointers made in a single game.

However, he is not the team’s lone shooter. Chucky Hepburn and Terrence Edwards, both All-ACC guards, have lately improved their shooting ability. Hepburn and Edwards shoot about 35% from downtown and have hit six or more three-pointers each game this season.

2. Louisville’s dominating ACC résumé

The Cardinals have won nine straight games and 19 of their past twenty. Louisville basketball not only wins, but dominates games. Louisville has won.

Louisville basketball has been dominant all season. This season, they’ve won 19 games by 10 points or more, 10 by 15 points or more, eight by 20 points or more, four by 25 or more, and two by 30 points or more, with their greatest win of the season being by 48 points.

The Cardinals have a differential margin of +10.9 points this year, placing them among the top 30 in the USA and No. 3 in the ACC. They also accomplished this on the road, winning 11 games by double digits and an average of 16.5 points versus ACC clubs.

Louisville basketball won 15 games against ACC opponents by double digits. The Cardinals defeated ACC opponents by an average of 15.5 points each game.

1. The Chucky Hepburn Effect

Louisville basketball will always have one of the most talented players in the ACC Tournament. Chucky Hepburn, the Cardinals’ outstanding point guard, is a top two-way player in the country.

Hepburn was named first-team All-ACC and the ACC’s Defensive Player of the Year. The Cardinals guard arrived from Wisconsin and quickly established a name for himself under Pat Kelsey. Hepburn became the first Cardinal to win the DPOY award since Gorgui Dieng in 2013. The guard from Nebraska leads the ACC in total thefts and is rated ninth in the country.

The Cardinals’ top point guard averaged 16.3 points, 5.9 assists, 3.5 rebounds, and 2.4 steals per game, shooting 35% from outside the arc and 44.9 percent from the field.

His assist total is third in the ACC and top 20 nationally. He leads the Cardinals in points per game and has scored 20 or more in six games, including a career-best 37 against Pitt.

He also had eight games with four or more steals, including a season-high seven steals versus Indiana. Chucky Hepburn is one of the greatest guards in the country, and if Louisville can make a long ACC Tournament run, Hepburn will be a big reason why.

Pat Kelsey must make three important moves to lead Louisville basketball to the ACC title

Here are two subtle and one apparent improvements Pat Kelsey must make to transform Louisville basketball into a legitimate ACC title contender.

Louisville basketball has won 18 of their previous 19 games, securing their eighth consecutive triumph. The Cardinals are currently 24-6 overall and 17-2 in the ACC, with only one game remaining before the tournament.

With the postseason officially underway, Pat Kelsey must begin to consider lineups and plays, as well as what works and what does not. The Cardinals have been firing on all cylinders throughout their winning streak, but now that it’s playoffs and March, the entire regular season is over.

Despite Pat Kelsey and Louisville basketball’s remarkable season and strong ACC victory run, there are still some areas for improvement.

3 essential changes Pat Kelsey must make to lead Louisville basketball to the ACC title.

This Pat Kelsey squad has a lot to show in the ACC Tournament if they want to compete with Cooper Flagg and Duke, but the Cardinals might be just a few moves away from taking the championship.

Kelsey has received high acclaim from everyone in college basketball for the Cardinals’ accomplishments this season, and a deep tournament run would just add to the icing.

Here are two subtle and one apparent improvements Pat Kelsey must make to transform Louisville basketball into a legitimate ACC title contender.

3. Subtle: Use the tiny lineup more.

Louisville basketball’s strength is their ability to shoot from beyond the arc. Pat Kelsey’s small lineup of Chucky Hepburn, Reyne Smith, Terrence Edwards Jr., J’Vonne Hadley, and Khani Rooths creates many opportunities for playmakers.

James Scott is a significant part of this club because of his ability to grab lobs on one end and be a valuable rim protector on the other. However, the Cardinals’ ability to shoot from deep with this small lineup has frequently opened the game up for Pat Kelsey’s team.

Rooths isn’t a three-point shooter, but what sticks out about the rookie is his ability to smash the boards on lengthy rebounds. In this small ball lineup, the Cardinals use their four guards to either drive and kick to an open shooter or play freely and score a basket.

Players such as Terrence Edwards Jr. and Chucky Hepburn excel in this setup. Once one catches fire, they pass it to Reyne Smith for an easy three. Hadley is also able to back his smaller opponent down, as he enjoys doing, and score an easy basket.

This lineup is critical for their four key scorers, and it is worth returning to it to create more opportunities.

2. Obvious: Create additional plays for Chucky Hepburn.

This can be perplexing, and some people may already do what Kelsey does. So let’s explain.

Louisville basketball relies heavily on Chucky Hepburn, but he must maintain his current success at the free-throw line. What makes the Cardinals’ top point guard so successful is his selflessness, but occasionally Louisville basketball requires him to be selfish, as he did in the first half against Pitt.

Hepburn has the power to take over, and when he finds his groove, it is one of the most impressive sights to behold. He presently averages 16.3 points and 6.0 assists per game, shooting 36% from outside and 84.5% from the charity line.

When Hepburn gets fire, or even scores at will, he frequently becomes adept at drawing fouls and getting to the free throw line. This must continue for Louisville to compete with Duke and Clemson. The Cardinals’ guard must have the ball in his hands because wonderful things will follow.

So, whether it’s to keep shooting, to set up a play for him to find Reyne Smith in the corner, or to draw fouls, Kelsey needs to keep getting the ball into Hepburn’s hands.

1. Subtle: Do more pick and pops with Reyne Smith.

Reyne Smith has recently struggled from beyond the arc, shooting only 8-30 (26.7%) in his past three games. He would go on to shoot 1-9 against Virginia Tech, 3-10 against Florida State, and 4-11 against Notre Dame.

However, Cardinals coach Pat Kelsey can’t stop feeding him the ball, as he is presently second in the NCAA in overall number of made threes with 104, and third in Louisville basketball program history in terms of most threes made in a single season.

The shooter from Ulverstone, TAS, averages 14.0 points per game on 38.5% from downtown, including 3.7 three-pointers per game, the second highest in the NCAA. So, after a poor few games for Smith, the Cardinals need to get him rolling as they prepare for the ACC Tournament.

Utilising him in pick-and-pops is a terrific method to bring him back to his former personality and consistency. Smith should be the screener in this play, then go to either the top of the key or the wing depending on where the play is being run. Smith should then have a solid open shot and be able to get back into his flow.

Kelsey already runs that play, so maybe he can place Smith in the pick and roll, where defences will expect the pop and free up the middle for Smith’s midrange or floater.

Smith is astute enough to know which read is open and whether to roll or pop, and Kelsey running more plays for him on offence might be a game changer.

Reyne Smith talks on his friendship with Pat Kelsey

Louisville basketball sharpshooter Reyne Smith, the only player on the squad who has spent all four years under coach Pat Kelsey, will have an emotional senior day.

Smith, who is from Tasmania, has always had a talent for shooting the ball. Kelsey has helped him become perhaps the greatest in Division I this season.

This is the narrative of Smith falling in love with the game, meeting Kelsey, and forming a friendship that will endure their entire lives.

Pat Kelsey’s pause revealed more about his connection with Reyne Smith than the accolades the Louisville basketball coach bestowed upon the Australian player.

“He’s a winner,” Kelsey told reporters during the Cardinals’ season-opening exhibition against Young Harris College in October. “Sometimes, people mistake him for what Skip Prosser used to call’suburban jump shooters.'” That is not Reyne.

“That’s his deal — and he shoots the blood out of the ball — yet he’s tough as nails and appears on every single scouting report. He is always precisely where he is supposed to be. It’s almost like having another assistant coach because he understands what we do and how to execute it so effectively. He’s a selfless guy who puts the team first.”

Then comes the pause. Perhaps Kelsey was reminded of the day Smith committed to play for him at Winthrop, when he jumped into the pool at his Rock Hill, South Carolina, home after getting the news. Perhaps it was a realisation of how much time had gone — or that concentrating solely on the next item in front of him would not avert the inevitable.

“It’s a shame I only get to coach him for one more year,” he told me. “Because he’s a joy.”

With a crowded senior day versus Stanford at the KFC Yum! Centre on Saturday, Kelsey is likely to say the same thing about players on his debut U of L roster. Smith’s family travels from Tasmania to accompany him to Denny Crum Court, which will have a different impact.

“He’s like a son to me,” Kelsey said after a Feb. 16 win against Notre Dame. Smith became only the third player in school history to hit 100 shots from beyond the arc in a season.

“It’s hard to put into words,” Smith told The Courier Journal later that night. “It’s starting to feel a little more real: It’s coming to the end.”

Smith, of course, is the only Card who has spent his whole four-year college career with Kelsey and his crew. He was the first to transfer in last March, only hours after the coach named his renovation “The ReviVILLE” on X, previously Twitter. All he’s done since then is improve his skills and become a fan favourite, making umbrella hats a must-have accessory in the student section.

“It’s kind of emotional to see the success he’s had this year; because he came with me from Charleston,” Kelsey elaborated. “He’s better here than he was there—and he was really excellent there. It’s absolutely amazing to see, and it’s a credit to hard effort.”

This is the story of Smith discovering basketball, his shot, Kelsey, and a second family.

He’s always been able to shoot it.

During an interview on The C.L. Brown Show in January, Smith revealed that he began playing Australian rules football as a child in Ulverstone. He started playing basketball in first grade and remained with it because of the individuals it made him close to.

A wise decision; by his early teens, he was competing in a national championship competition. His coach was Louisville assistant Michael Cassidy, a fellow countryman who is new to coaching.

“I should find a photo,” Cassidy told The Courier Journal last summer. “The guy is tiny and little, but he’s always been able to shoot it.

“We’ve always joked about how we can’t stay away from one other. It’s been like four separate programs.”

When Smith placed second in made 3-pointers during the week-long contest, he decided to dedicate himself to the sport in the hopes of one day being Australia’s best marksman. He spent a lot of time on YouTube, namely viewing a Sports Science video on Klay Thompson’s jumper, and worked hard in the gym.

 

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Smith informed Paul Rogers of the Cardinal Sports Network that he was confidence in his ability to shoot the ball after setting the Cardinals’ single-game record of 10 three-pointers against SMU on January 21. “I work way too hard to even think twice about my shot.”

“There are very few people I’ve ever coached,” she added, “who are as invested in their game as he is.”

Cassidy eventually came knocking with an invitation to play for the elite Australian Institute of Sport in Canberra. It was founded in 1981 to improve the country’s prospects of winning an Olympic medal, and it has produced basketball players like Andrew Bogut and Patty Mills.

Smith was determined to advance his game to Division I level, so this was a no-brainer; he moved away from home at the age of 17. Since then, the distance has only increased.

“My mom’s like my biggest fan and wants me to chase my dreams,” she remarked. “She hates seeing me leave; but she knows that this is something I love to do.”

‘Comfortable’

Kelsey had success recruiting at the Australian Institute of Sport (Xavier Cooks) before to Smith’s arrival, developing contacts with coaches along the way. When the young guard began to build a reputation for himself, they contacted the Cincinnati native on his behalf.

“I’ve always loved watching Reyne play,” said Washington Wizards assistant Adam Caporn, who was the senior teacher at the institute’s Basketball Australia Centre of Excellence while Smith and Cassidy were there. “(He) can play anywhere and help a team anywhere with that level of shooting and toughness.”

Kelsey offered Smith two things if he committed to Winthrop. The first was that, in accordance with Australian customs, he would not have to address him as coach. The second move was the aforementioned backflip into his pool.

“I didn’t think anything of it,” Smith said. “When I called him to say I was committing, I kind of forgot about it.”

Kelsey then raced outside, flipped his phone camera around, and asked his son, Johnny, to record him diving into the lake while wearing his clothing.

“I’m like, ‘Oh my God,'” Smith explained. “Coaches with so much enthusiasm are hard to come by in Australia. “It was quite funny.”

 

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Kelsey have great expectations for Smith. When his signing became official, the coach stated, “I don’t want to put too much pressure on him; but I believe he could be Winthrop’s next great Australian.” However, that never materialised. Instead, he followed him and Cassidy to Charleston, where he broke the program record for most 3-pointers made in a game twice as a junior, finishing with 1,212 career points on 37% shooting from distance.

Smith praised Kelsey and his team for making him feel at ease during his adjustment to life in America. That’s one of the reasons he was so eager to join what they were creating in Louisville. Despite receiving offers from other institutions through the NCAA transfer site last spring, he chose not to pursue them.

“Especially during holidays like Thanksgiving (or) Christmas, PK’s always stressing to make sure that I’m OK and I’ve got something going on; and, if not, I can always come to his house,” Smith informed me.

“That’s what’s been so amazing for me: him underlining how welcome I am to come over anytime I want, and a variety of other staff members stating that if I ever need a home-cooked dinner, I can come over. Things like those simply make it feel so much simpler, and you feel a lot more at ease in that setting.”

‘It won’t endure forever.’

Smith, who had lived and breathed Kelsey’s culture for three years, came into the 2024-25 season as an expert at maintaining a forward-thinking attitude. But he was also acutely aware of the wider picture: time was of the essence.

“You kind of go in every day just with a different appreciation,” Smith claimed, “and understanding that it’s not lasting forever.”

Smith, as Kelsey mentioned after the Notre Dame win, had a smooth adjustment from the Coastal Athletic Association to the ACC. Entering March, he was nine 3s away from breaking his career high of 112 from 2023-24 and 19 shy of overtaking Taquan Dean’s 122 from 2004-05 for the top place in the U of L record book.

“His light is neon,” Kelsey explained. “Name a (shade) of green that’s greener than green and he’s got it.”

“When a play gets called for him, and you’re on the end of the screen, you just really want to do your job,” said sophomore forward James Scott, who played with Smith at Charleston before following him to the Cards. “Because you know that, if you do your job and he gets any type of space, he’s going to hit the shot.”

 

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Smith’s 3.71 triples per game stood second in DI entering March and, if he continues at this rate, will be the highest by an ACC player since JJ Redick averaged 3.90 for Duke in 2005-06. He was also on track for the second-best conversion rate from outside the arc of his career, at 38.5%. Then there were his career-best 81 rebounds and career-low 20 turnovers.

“He’s a really good all-around player,” Kelsey explained.

Although he will soon leave Kelsey & Co. behind, Smith’s playing career is far from done. Snipers with his range are likely to find a home in the professional ranks, and he should be called upon to represent Australia in international events, including as the 2021 FIBA U19 World Cup. But when the ball stops bouncing, he wants to be a coach. He replied that teaching the game is too much pleasure to give up totally.

“He’s a great leader; he’s unbelievably bright basketball-wise; he’s got a dynamic personality,” Kelsey told me. “I’ll try to talk him out of this ridiculous racket, but what’s in your blood stays in your blood. Typically, you have no control over the situation.”

Kelsey’s regimen is also having an impact on him.

“I’m forever in debt to this staff for what they’ve done for me — for not only my basketball career but also for me as a person; kind of shaping my life so, when I leave the program, I’m not only a better basketball player but also a better man,” Smith said. “They always talk about how proud they are of me, but the feeling’s mutual.”

Brooks Holton, a Louisville men’s basketball reporter, may be reached at bholton@gannett.com and followed on X at @brooksHolton.