Predicting the Texas Longhorns’ Final 3 Games of the Season

# Predicting the Texas Longhorns’ Final 3 Games of the Season

The Texas Longhorns have navigated a thrilling 2025 season under Steve Sarkisian, emerging as one of the premier programs in the Big 12 — and a legitimate College Football Playoff contender. With an explosive offense led by quarterback Quinn Ewers and a defense that’s found its rhythm in key moments, Texas controls its own destiny heading into the final stretch. But the last three games of the regular season will test everything they’ve built.

Let’s break down the Longhorns’ final three matchups and predict how things might unfold as Texas looks to cement its spot among college football’s elite.

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Game 1: at TCU (Nov. 15)

The Horned Frogs have been a thorn in Texas’ side in recent years. Even when the Longhorns have been the more talented team on paper, TCU often finds a way to make it interesting. This year, Sonny Dykes’ squad is rebuilding but remains dangerous, especially at home in Fort Worth.

TCU’s offense revolves around tempo and versatility, but the Horned Frogs have struggled to find consistency against physical defenses — something Texas boasts in abundance. Linebackers Anthony Hill Jr. and Jaylan Ford should have a field day against a run game that’s been inconsistent all year.

Offensively, Ewers will look to pick apart a young secondary with help from wideouts Isaiah Bond and Johntay Cook II. Expect running back CJ Baxter to shoulder the load in the second half, grinding down the Frogs’ front seven as Texas pulls away late.

Prediction: Texas 38, TCU 20
Takeaway: The Longhorns avoid the trap, controlling both lines of scrimmage and moving one step closer to a Big 12 Championship berth.

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Game 2: vs. Iowa State (Nov. 23)

Senior Day in Austin always brings emotion, and the Cyclones’ disciplined defense could provide a tricky challenge for Texas’ high-powered offense. Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell always has his team ready, and the Cyclones’ 3-3-5 defense is designed to slow down teams like Texas that thrive on chunk plays.

However, the difference this year lies in Texas’ offensive balance. The combination of Baxter’s power and Ewers’ poise gives Sarkisian the flexibility to adjust to whatever look Iowa State throws at them. Expect Sarkisian to scheme open several big plays early, using motion and play-action to stretch the field.

Defensively, Texas’ front — anchored by Byron Murphy II and Alfred Collins — should dominate the trenches. Iowa State’s offense has been erratic, particularly in pass protection, and that spells trouble against one of the most physical defensive lines in the nation.

By the fourth quarter, the talent gap should take over. Texas simply has too much firepower on both sides of the ball.

Prediction: Texas 34, Iowa State 13
Takeaway: Texas sends its seniors off in style, maintaining momentum and improving playoff positioning.

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Game 3: at Texas Tech (Nov. 30)

The regular-season finale is always loaded with emotion, and this year’s trip to Lubbock could have massive implications — possibly for a spot in the Big 12 title game or even the College Football Playoff. Texas Tech under Joey McGuire has been tough, gritty, and unafraid to play spoiler.

The Red Raiders have the home-field advantage and a raucous crowd that will treat this game like their Super Bowl. Their offense, led by quarterback Behren Morton, is capable of lighting up the scoreboard, particularly against defenses that lose focus.

But Texas won’t overlook them this time. The Longhorns’ defensive backs, led by Malik Muhammad and Terrance Brooks, should limit Tech’s passing attack. Look for Texas to lean on the running game early to quiet the crowd and then strike deep once the defense starts to creep up.

This could be the type of game that tests Texas’ championship resolve — the kind of gritty, fourth-quarter battle that defines playoff-caliber teams. Expect Ewers to deliver when it matters most, connecting with Bond for a crucial late touchdown.

Prediction: Texas 31, Texas Tech 27
Takeaway: The Longhorns survive a scare in Lubbock and head into the Big 12 Championship Game with their playoff hopes intact.

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Final Outlook

If the Longhorns handle business as expected, they’ll finish the regular season 11–1, setting up a rematch with either Oklahoma or Kansas State in the Big 12 title game. With a veteran quarterback, elite skill talent, and a battle-tested defense, Texas appears poised for its best finish in over a decade.

The Longhorns are not just “back” — they’re built to stay.