Supercomputer predicts Southampton going up and Portsmouth going down

Supporters on the red side of Hampshire may take some comfort from a new set of computer-generated projections suggesting that Southampton and Portsmouth are unlikely to be competing in the same division next season. According to the latest data-driven predictions, Saints are expected to push towards promotion, while their south coast rivals face a far more worrying outlook.

The forecast comes from a supercomputer model run by betting analysts at aceodds.com and has been highlighted by the Daily Echo. The projections have raised eyebrows, particularly because they differ sharply from the mood expressed by many Southampton fans on social media, where pessimism has often overshadowed optimism in recent weeks.

Despite those doubts, the computer model predicts that Southampton will enjoy a strong finish to the campaign, ultimately ending the season in fifth place in the Championship table. If that scenario plays out, Saints would secure a place in the play-offs and keep their promotion hopes alive.

According to the same projections, Coventry City and Ipswich Town are expected to claim the two automatic promotion spots, finishing first and second respectively. Middlesbrough and Watford are tipped to occupy third and fourth place, while Millwall are predicted to edge into sixth, completing the play-off line-up just behind Southampton.

The margins involved are forecast to be extremely tight. Saints are projected to finish on 69 points, only two points ahead of Leicester City and Stoke City, who are both expected to narrowly miss out on the top six with 67 points apiece. That congestion near the top suggests that the final day of the season could be decisive, particularly for Southampton, who are predicted to face Preston North End away.

Preston themselves are expected to be part of a densely packed top half, finishing 11th on 66 points. With so many clubs separated by fine margins, the supercomputer’s forecast underlines just how competitive the Championship is likely to be in the closing stages of the season.

From a Southampton perspective, there is further encouragement in the underlying probabilities generated by the model. Saints have reportedly been given a zero per cent chance of relegation, a reassuring statistic for a fanbase that has endured inconsistency this season. However, the model also suggests only a slim 2.5 per cent chance of securing automatic promotion, reflecting how difficult it will be to break into the top two.

More realistically, Southampton are assigned a 41 per cent probability of finishing in the top six, indicating that a play-off place remains a genuine and attainable objective if results improve over the coming months.

While the outlook appears cautiously optimistic for Saints, the same cannot be said for Portsmouth. According to the projections, Pompey are expected to struggle as the season progresses and ultimately finish third from bottom, condemned to relegation with a total of 48 points.

The battle at the foot of the table is also predicted to be tight. Norwich City and Charlton Athletic are both forecast to finish just two points clear of Portsmouth, highlighting how small swings in form could dramatically alter the relegation picture. Nevertheless, the supercomputer’s verdict suggests that Pompey may find themselves on the wrong side of that divide.

For Southampton supporters, the hope is that the team can rediscover the form shown during the early weeks of Tonda Eckert’s tenure. That initial spell was marked by positivity and energy, offering a glimpse of what the squad might be capable of when confidence is high.

January could also play a key role in shaping the remainder of the campaign. From an optimistic standpoint, Saints are expected to be active in the transfer market, with new arrivals potentially strengthening key areas of the squad. Any successful business could provide a timely boost as the promotion race intensifies.

In addition to possible signings, Southampton are also set to benefit from the return of important players. Shea Charles was widely regarded as one of the few standout performers during Will Still’s time in charge, yet he has not featured under Eckert so far. His anticipated return could add quality and balance to the side at a crucial point in the season.

Ross Stewart is another player whose availability could prove significant. Before his injury, the striker was in strong form and looked capable of making a real impact. However, he missed much of Eckert’s impressive early run and only made a brief return in the closing moments of the defeat at Middlesbrough, by which point the outcome was already decided. A fully fit Stewart could yet play an important role if Saints are to sustain a promotion push.

Taken together, these factors provide a measure of hope for those who have been predicting a bleak few months ahead. The combination of potential reinforcements, returning players, and a favourable statistical outlook suggests that Southampton’s season may yet finish on a positive note.

That said, there is a healthy dose of realism to temper the optimism. As the old saying goes, football matches are decided on grass, not on paper—or in this case, not on algorithms and computer models. While modern football is increasingly shaped by data and simulation, the unpredictable nature of the Championship remains one of its defining features.

Even in an age where video games like FIFA 26 allow fans to simulate entire seasons at the click of a button, the reality is that no actual Championship fixture will be decided by a laptop. Injuries, refereeing decisions, form swings, and sheer momentum can all defy even the most sophisticated predictions.

For now, the supercomputer has offered Saints fans a reason to believe and Pompey supporters something to fear. Whether those forecasts prove accurate will only be revealed over the coming months, one match at a time, on pitches rather than screens.