BOZICH – In basketball computer rankings, Pat Kelsey’s resurgent Cardinals surpass the wounded Wildcats

Louisville, Kentucky (WDRB) There is a good likelihood that the University of Louisville and Kentucky men’s basketball debate will come up again on the floor during the NCAA Tournament’s second round.

All that is necessary is for Mark Pope’s UK squad to earn a 3-seed on Selection Sunday and Pat Kelsey’s University of Louisville team to get a 6-seed. And the BracketMatrix website, which averages the outcomes from 85 predicted brackets, predicts the UK with three and the University of London with six.

Place both teams in the same area. Cats win their first game. Cardinals win their first game.

BINGO! We have launched.

However, a twist is beginning to emerge in the story. Kentucky has lost two of their last three games, three of their last five, five of their last nine, and seven of their last twelve.

Louisville has lost one of its last eighteen.

Yes, the Southeastern Conference has 18 rounds, and Mike Tyson is in his prime. Yes, the Atlantic Coast Conference is arm wrestling with your grandchild. Twelve to fourteen SEC clubs are expected to make the 68-team NCAA Tournament field. If North Carolina and Wake Forest keep struggling, the ACC will settle for Duke, Clemson, and Louisville.

However, if you look at the stats from the most popular analytics algorithms (like the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee does), Louisville does project as a 6-seed.

Kentucky is not projected as a three-seed. The Wildcats also resemble a 6-seed.

I compiled the data from six different formulas: the NCAA Net Rating, Ken Pomeroy, Bart Torvik, Evan Miyakawa, Erik Haslam, and the old Ratings Percentage Index.

Kentucky was placed as high as 10th (RPI) and as low as 31st (Evan Miya). Louisville was placed as high as No. 19 (Torvik, RPI) and no lower than 26 (EvanMiya).

The average UK rating is 20.3, and the first seed is No. 6.

Average U of L rating: 22.5; also a No. 6 seed.

*EvanMiya has several formulae, including one that takes into account injuries. With UK guard Jaxson Robinson out for the season and Lamont Butler dealing with shoulder troubles, injuries are significant for Mark Pope’s club.

When discussing the NCAA Tournament, you must begin with the Net formula, which was created by the NCAA. Aside from the RPI (which is out of date and often ignored), the Net offers Kentucky the greatest ranking — 15, ahead of Illinois, Purdue, St. Mary’s, and St. John’s.

Quad I victories are credentials with no expiration date. Kentucky has 9 Quad I victories in 18 attempts. That’s fantastic.

Only four teams have more Quad I victories than the Wildcats: Auburn (16), Alabama, Tennessee, and Michigan State (10).

Kentucky and Auburn are the only teams that have played 18 games against Quad I opponents. Louisville has played eight games, defeating Clemson at home, West Virginia at a neutral site, and SMU and Pitt on the road, while losing to Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Duke at home and at UK.

Kentucky’s victories against Duke, Gonzaga, and Louisville, as well as its sweep of Tennessee and victory over Florida to open SEC play, will not be forgotten.

However, the indicators that represent current trends are not as favourable to the Wildcats. Kentucky has dropped 14 positions in EvanMiya during the last month, and 12 in the previous week.

Despite losing three positions in the previous week, the Cards are now equal with where they were in his formula a month ago.

On January 1, Kentucky ranked 15th at Torvik. Louisville was ranked No. 60. At the end of January, the Wildcats were 14th and the Cards 25th.

Kentucky has dropped to 17th place by the middle of February, with Louisville at 26th. Today, Louisville ranks 19th, followed by Clemson, Saint Mary’s, Kansas, and Kentucky.

According to Torvik, if you rank the teams from the start of the season, Louisville is No. 10 and the Wildcats are 24th.

Since January 1, the Cards have been ranked No. 10 on Torvik, ahead of Tennessee (14), Kentucky (24), Ole Miss (27) and Oklahoma (61), all Southeastern Conference clubs that have given Louisville four half-dozen defeats.

Since the beginning of the year, Torvik’s methodology has placed Louisville ahead of Big Ten leaders Michigan State and Michigan, Big East winner St. John’s, and Big 12 heavyweights Arizona, Iowa State, and BYU.

Here are a few topics that the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee may examine as Selection Sunday approaches.

Pat Kelsey fulfils his assurance of “winning games” at Louisville

339 days ago, Pat Kelsey was appointed to lead the struggling University of Louisville basketball program.

During the Kenny Payne era, the Cardinals had the worst two seasons in program history, finishing 12-52. They had only played one NCAA Tournament game since Rick Pitino’s departure in 2017, were a doormat in the ACC for a few seasons, and were not among the nation’s elite programs.

However, Kelsey didn’t have his boots on the ground for 30 seconds before he gave his first message on what supporters might anticipate from his program.

“We’re going to win,” Kelsey exclaimed as they walked from the plane to the airport. “We’re going to win.”

It was the same message for the following six months, while Kelsey was busy assembling a new staff and a whole new team. There was optimism among the Louisville fan base, and Kelsey kept that hope alive with his words of encouragement, the concept of Revi-Ville, and his overall upbeat attitude towards the season.

Kelsey knew what he was selling.

With one week left in the regular season, Louisville is not only winning games, but they are still in contention for the overall ACC Championship. Sure, winning the title is a long shot, with Duke still one game ahead, but it is not impossible.

“I want to commend coach, Kelsey, his staff, and their team for what they’ve done in such a short period of time with this program,” Pittsburgh coach Jeff Capel said following U of L’s 79-68 victory against the Panthers on Saturday night. “It’s nothing short of amazing to get this environment back to how it was when I first became a head coach in this league.”

The Louisville fan base is experiencing renewed energy and anticipation.

So, what may happen during the following week? Louisville has already won a double-bye and a top-three seed in the ACC Tournament, which begins on March 11 in Charlotte, North Carolina. The Cardinals will face California (13-16, 6-12 ACC) on Wednesday at 9 p.m. before hosting Stanford (19-10, 11-7) next Saturday at 2 p.m. to conclude the regular season.

Louisville, which has already established a school record for the most progress from one season to the next and continues to improve, is currently 23-6 overall and 16-2 in ACC play.

Kelsey stated that his squad will not look forward. We just can’t and won’t do it,” but for the rest of us, the next two games are crucial.

U of L is presently tied with Clemson for second place in the conference at 16-2, trailing Duke at 17-1. The Cardinals have the tiebreaker against Clemson for the head-to-head victory in January.

A three-way tie? Louisville would receive the #1 seed in the ACC Tournament if they win both of their remaining games and Duke loses one of their last two. The Blue Devils visit Wake Forest on Monday and travel to North Carolina next Saturday. Clemson plays at Boston College and will host Virginia Tech.

Chucky Hepburn, a point guard, scored 37 points to lead Louisville against Pittsburgh. He also acknowledged the almost 18,000 supporters who filled the KFC Yum Centre with a major boost, telling CardNation after the game to “buckle up” for the long drive.

“One hundred percent the fanbase was so great tonight,” he remarked. “We felt the excitement, much like in the game versus Tennessee, which was one of those high-octane games. So we knew we could not lose tonight. We had to dig deep and simply make plays to win the game. Going down the stretch in March, we’ll need the fanbase’s love and support. Because we intend to play for a long period in March and into April, so saddle up.”

Kelsey was not incorrect. His team is winning games, and the Cardinals hope it continues for a few more weeks.

CBS Sports Digital

Reyne Smith talks on his friendship with Pat Kelsey ahead of Louisville basketball’s senior day

Louisville basketball sharpshooter Reyne Smith, the only player on the squad who has spent all four years under coach Pat Kelsey, will have an emotional senior day.

Smith, who is from Tasmania, has always had a talent for shooting the ball. Kelsey has helped him become perhaps the greatest in Division I this season.

This is the narrative of Smith falling in love with the game, meeting Kelsey, and forming a friendship that will endure their entire lives.

Pat Kelsey’s pause revealed more about his connection with Reyne Smith than the accolades the Louisville basketball coach bestowed upon the Australian player.

“He’s a winner,” Kelsey told reporters during the Cardinals’ season-opening exhibition against Young Harris College in October. “Sometimes, people mistake him for what Skip Prosser used to call’suburban jump shooters.'” That is not Reyne.

“That’s his deal — and he shoots the blood out of the ball — yet he’s tough as nails and appears on every single scouting report. He is always precisely where he is supposed to be. It’s almost like having another assistant coach because he understands what we do and how to execute it so effectively. He’s a selfless guy who puts the team first.”

Then comes the pause. Perhaps Kelsey was reminded of the day Smith committed to play for him at Winthrop, when he jumped into the pool at his Rock Hill, South Carolina, home after getting the news. Perhaps it was a realisation of how much time had gone — or that concentrating solely on the next item in front of him would not avert the inevitable.

“It’s a shame I only get to coach him for one more year,” he told me. “Because he’s a joy.”

With a crowded senior day versus Stanford at the KFC Yum! Centre on Saturday, Kelsey is likely to say the same thing about players on his debut U of L roster. Smith’s family travels from Tasmania to accompany him to Denny Crum Court, which will have a different impact.

“He’s like a son to me,” Kelsey said after a Feb. 16 win against Notre Dame. Smith became only the third player in school history to hit 100 shots from beyond the arc in a season.

“It’s hard to put into words,” Smith told The Courier Journal later that night. “It’s starting to feel a little more real: It’s coming to the end.”

Smith, of course, is the only Card who has spent his whole four-year college career with Kelsey and his crew. He was the first to transfer in last March, only hours after the coach named his renovation “The ReviVILLE” on X, previously Twitter. All he’s done since then is improve his skills and become a fan favourite, making umbrella hats a must-have accessory in the student section.

“It’s kind of emotional to see the success he’s had this year; because he came with me from Charleston,” Kelsey elaborated. “He’s better here than he was there—and he was really excellent there. It’s absolutely amazing to see, and it’s a credit to hard effort.”

This is the story of Smith discovering basketball, his shot, Kelsey, and a second family.

He’s always been able to shoot it.

Nov 27, 2024; Paradise Island, Bahamas, BHS; Louisville Cardinals guard Reyne Smith (6) shoots during the first half against the Indiana Hoosiers at the Atlantis Resort. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

During an interview on The C.L. Brown Show in January, Smith revealed that he began playing Australian rules football as a child in Ulverstone. He started playing basketball in first grade and remained with it because of the individuals it made him close to.

A wise decision; by his early teens, he was competing in a national championship competition. His coach was Louisville assistant Michael Cassidy, a fellow countryman who is new to coaching.

“I should find a photo,” Cassidy told The Courier Journal last summer. “The guy is tiny and little, but he’s always been able to shoot it.

“We’ve always joked about how we can’t stay away from one other. It’s been like four separate programs.”

When Smith placed second in made 3-pointers during the week-long contest, he decided to dedicate himself to the sport in the hopes of one day being Australia’s best marksman. He spent a lot of time on YouTube, namely viewing a Sports Science video on Klay Thompson’s jumper, and worked hard in the gym.

 

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Smith informed Paul Rogers of the Cardinal Sports Network that he was confidence in his ability to shoot the ball after setting the Cardinals’ single-game record of 10 three-pointers against SMU on January 21. “I work way too hard to even think twice about my shot.”

“There are very few people I’ve ever coached,” she added, “who are as invested in their game as he is.”

Cassidy eventually came knocking with an invitation to play for the elite Australian Institute of Sport in Canberra. It was founded in 1981 to improve the country’s prospects of winning an Olympic medal, and it has produced basketball players like Andrew Bogut and Patty Mills.

Smith was determined to advance his game to Division I level, so this was a no-brainer; he moved away from home at the age of 17. Since then, the distance has only increased.

“My mom’s like my biggest fan and wants me to chase my dreams,” she remarked. “She hates seeing me leave; but she knows that this is something I love to do.”

‘Comfortable’

Jan 21, 2025; Dallas, Texas, USA; Louisville Cardinals guard Reyne Smith (6) reacts with the bench after a made three-point basket against the SMU Mustangs during the second half at Moody Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

Kelsey had success recruiting at the Australian Institute of Sport (Xavier Cooks) before to Smith’s arrival, developing contacts with coaches along the way. When the young guard began to build a reputation for himself, they contacted the Cincinnati native on his behalf.

“I’ve always loved watching Reyne play,” said Washington Wizards assistant Adam Caporn, who was the senior teacher at the institute’s Basketball Australia Centre of Excellence while Smith and Cassidy were there. “(He) can play anywhere and help a team anywhere with that level of shooting and toughness.”

Kelsey offered Smith two things if he committed to Winthrop. The first was that, in accordance with Australian customs, he would not have to address him as coach. The second move was the aforementioned backflip into his pool.

“I didn’t think anything of it,” Smith said. “When I called him to say I was committing, I kind of forgot about it.”

Kelsey then raced outside, flipped his phone camera around, and asked his son, Johnny, to record him diving into the lake while wearing his clothing.

“I’m like, ‘Oh my God,'” Smith explained. “Coaches with so much enthusiasm are hard to come by in Australia. “It was quite funny.”

 

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Kelsey have great expectations for Smith. When his signing became official, the coach stated, “I don’t want to put too much pressure on him; but I believe he could be Winthrop’s next great Australian.” However, that never materialised. Instead, he followed him and Cassidy to Charleston, where he broke the program record for most 3-pointers made in a game twice as a junior, finishing with 1,212 career points on 37% shooting from distance.

Smith praised Kelsey and his team for making him feel at ease during his adjustment to life in America. That’s one of the reasons he was so eager to join what they were creating in Louisville. Despite receiving offers from other institutions through the NCAA transfer site last spring, he chose not to pursue them.

“Especially during holidays like Thanksgiving (or) Christmas, PK’s always stressing to make sure that I’m OK and I’ve got something going on; and, if not, I can always come to his house,” Smith informed me.

“That’s what’s been so amazing for me: him underlining how welcome I am to come over anytime I want, and a variety of other staff members stating that if I ever need a home-cooked dinner, I can come over. Things like those simply make it feel so much simpler, and you feel a lot more at ease in that setting.”

‘It won’t endure forever.’

Nov 28, 2024; Paradise Island, Bahamas, BHS; Louisville Cardinals forward Noah Waterman (93) and Louisville Cardinals guard Terrence Edwards Jr. (5) and Louisville Cardinals guard Reyne Smith (6) react during the second half against the West Virginia Mountaineers at Imperial Arena at the Atlantis resort. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Smith, who had lived and breathed Kelsey’s culture for three years, came into the 2024-25 season as an expert at maintaining a forward-thinking attitude. But he was also acutely aware of the wider picture: time was of the essence.

“You kind of go in every day just with a different appreciation,” Smith claimed, “and understanding that it’s not lasting forever.”

Smith, as Kelsey mentioned after the Notre Dame win, had a smooth adjustment from the Coastal Athletic Association to the ACC. Entering March, he was nine 3s away from breaking his career high of 112 from 2023-24 and 19 shy of overtaking Taquan Dean’s 122 from 2004-05 for the top place in the U of L record book.

“His light is neon,” Kelsey explained. “Name a (shade) of green that’s greener than green and he’s got it.”

“When a play gets called for him, and you’re on the end of the screen, you just really want to do your job,” said sophomore forward James Scott, who played with Smith at Charleston before following him to the Cards. “Because you know that, if you do your job and he gets any type of space, he’s going to hit the shot.”

 

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Smith’s 3.71 triples per game stood second in DI entering March and, if he continues at this rate, will be the highest by an ACC player since JJ Redick averaged 3.90 for Duke in 2005-06. He was also on track for the second-best conversion rate from outside the arc of his career, at 38.5%. Then there were his career-best 81 rebounds and career-low 20 turnovers.

“He’s a really good all-around player,” Kelsey explained.

Although he will soon leave Kelsey & Co. behind, Smith’s playing career is far from done. Snipers with his range are likely to find a home in the professional ranks, and he should be called upon to represent Australia in international events, including as the 2021 FIBA U19 World Cup. But when the ball stops bouncing, he wants to be a coach. He replied that teaching the game is too much pleasure to give up totally.

“He’s a great leader; he’s unbelievably bright basketball-wise; he’s got a dynamic personality,” Kelsey told me. “I’ll try to talk him out of this ridiculous racket, but what’s in your blood stays in your blood. Typically, you have no control over the situation.”

Kelsey’s regimen is also having an impact on him.

“I’m forever in debt to this staff for what they’ve done for me — for not only my basketball career but also for me as a person; kind of shaping my life so, when I leave the program, I’m not only a better basketball player but also a better man,” Smith said. “They always talk about how proud they are of me, but the feeling’s mutual.”

Brooks Holton, a Louisville men’s basketball reporter, may be reached at bholton@gannett.com and followed on X at @brooksHolton.