Champions League table is predicted by a supercomputer following a disastrous week for Premier League clubs

The Champions League witnessed some extraordinary upsets on Matchday 4.

Arsenal, Aston Villa, and Manchester City all suffered losses on the road.

A dismal defeat was suffered by reigning champions Real Madrid on their home turf.

Mikel Arteta and Pep Guardiola both oversaw Champions League losses. (Image Photo Agency/Getty Images | Gualter Fatia/Getty Images)

The standings were significantly altered halfway through the league phase as a consequence of the unexpected and stunning results of Matchday 4 in the Champions League.

Liverpool was the sole Premier League team to avoid defeat, defeating Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 on Xabi Alonso’s return to Anfield. Conversely, Real Madrid was astonished by an impressive Milan team on their home turf. Paris Saint-Germain suffered yet another defeat, while Juventus managed only a disappointing draw.

The drama of the newly-expanded and reformatted Champions League is undeniable. However, what implications do the results of Matchday 4 have for the table in the eighth and final match of the league phase?

Opta’s supercomputer has been working tirelessly to simulate the final table’s appearance; however, it is important to note that these are merely predictions.

Automatic qualifiers (ranked 1st to 8th)

After all eight games are completed, the top eight teams are automatically qualified for the last 16 of the modified Champions League.Liverpool is the sole team with a pristine record following four consecutive victories, and Opta anticipates that they will preserve their position at the top of the table. They are assigned a 95.1% probability of achieving the automatic qualification positions.

Inter, the 2022/23 finalists, are expected to secure a second-place finish following their 1-0 victory over Arsenal on Wednesday. After their 4-1 demolition of Manchester City on Tuesday, they are expected to accumulate 17.6 points in the league phase, which is 0.5 points more than Sporting CP. Nevertheless, their likelihood of qualifying automatically may be affected by Ruben Amorim’s departure.

Barcelona has scored 14 goals in their succeeding three matches, following a disappointing defeat in their opener. According to Opta’s 50,000 simulations, they will finish fourth, closely followed by Borussia Dortmund, the runners-up from last season. Dortmund has also won three and lost one of their first four games.

Manchester City, the 2022/23 champions, are projected to finish sixth, despite their midweek defeat to Sporting. They are currently ranked tenth, despite their losses to Inter and the Portuguese champions. Atalanta, the Europa League champions, are expected to finish in seventh place after an unblemished start to their European campaign.

Monaco completes the top eight as they continue to impress under the leadership of Adi Hutter. Their current standing in the 36-team league is third, following a draw and two victories, as well as an opening-day victory over Barcelona.

Location

Collective

Points that are anticipated

1.

Liverpool

19.8

2.

Inter

17.6

3.

CP Sporting

17.1

4.

Barcelona

16.4

5.

Borussia Dortmund

15.9

6.

Manchester City

15.2

7.

Milan

14.9

8.

Monaco

14.8

Participants in the play-offs (ranked ninth to twenty-fourth)

Real Madrid, the holders of the Opta data, are concerned by the anticipated point totals. The 15-time champions are presently ranked 18th in the league phase table, having won two and lost two of their four matches. They are expected to finish in a lower position, which would result in their placement as an unseeded team in the play-off round. Teams ranked ninth through sixteenth are seeded, while those ranked seventeenth through twenty-fourth are unseeded.

Paris Saint-Germain are in an even more alarming situation. Under Luis Enrique, they have only accrued four points and are anticipated to finish in the twenty-fourth position, which is just on the brink of elimination. In their final four fixtures, the French champions will encounter Bayern Munich and Manchester City.

It is also anticipated that Juventus and Atletico Madrid will qualify for the play-off round as unseeded teams. However, it is becoming increasingly unlikely that either team will achieve automatic progression to the last 16. PSG was defeated by the latter in the final phases of the week, which served to maintain their optimism.

Bayer Leverkusen, the Bundesliga’s reigning champions, are anticipated to secure the tenth position, four positions and 0.5 points clear of Bayern Munich. Liverpool’s recent victory over the incumbent German champions would have resulted in a higher ranking for them.

On Wednesday, Aston Villa suffered their first European defeat, losing 1-0 at Club Brugge due to a ludicrous penalty, despite being one of the teams to defeat Bayern this term. The final rankings are expected to place them two positions below Arsenal, which is led by Mikel Arteta, despite the fact that they have nine points. Even with a subpar campaign, the Gunners are still projected to secure a 37.5% chance of finishing in the top eight.

Celtic’s 2024/25 Champions League campaign has been off to an impressive start, despite a 7-1 loss to Dortmund on Matchday 2. It is anticipated that they will finish in 15th place, two positions behind seven-time champions Milan and three positions behind debutants and surprise package Breslau.

Location

Collective

Points that are anticipated

9.

Arsenal

14.7

10.

Bayer Leverkusen

14.5

11.

Aston Villa

14.4

12.

Chest

14.2

13.

Milan

14.1

14.

Munich Bayern

14.0

15.

Celtic

13.2

16.

Lille

13.1

17.

Atletico Madrid

13.1

18.

Juventus

12.8

19.

Real Madrid

12.8

Twenty.

PSV Eindhoven

11.9

Twenty-one.

Stuttgart

11.6

Twenty-two.

Benfica

10.9

23.

Dinamo Zagreb

10.9

Twenty-four.

PSG

10.4

Sides that were eliminated (25th to 36th)

Young Boys, Slovan Bratislava, Red Star Belgrade, and Sturm Graz are all expected to withdraw from the competition prior to the elimination stages, which is not unexpected. However, RB Leipzig is a surprising underperformer in this year’s competition. Despite a promising start in the Bundesliga, they are currently in a precarious situation as a result of four consecutive losses.

It is probable that Girona, who are debutants, will be eliminated following their 4-0 defeat at PSV Eindhoven in midweek. They have not performed as well as Brest in elite European football. In the same vein, Bologna, an Italian team that has not participated in the competition since its rebranding, is unlikely to advance after a single draw and three losses.

Pep Lijnders, a former assistant manager at Liverpool, achieved his first victory in the league portion on Wednesday by defeating Feyenoord, the former team of Arne Slot. The former are still unlikely to make it to the top 24, while the latter are perilously close to it, despite a subpar start to the campaign.

Location

Collective

Points that are anticipated

Twenty-five.

Feyenoord

10.4

Twenty-six.

Club Brugge

9.2

27.

Sparta Prague

7.6

28.

Girona

6.9

Twenty-nine.

Shakhtar Donetsk

6.7

Thirty.

RB Leipzig

5.7

Thirty-one.

Bologna

5.1

32.

Salzburg

5.1

33.

Red Star Belgrade

3.8

Thirty-four.

Sturm Graz

3.1

Thirty-five.

Boys in their youth

2.9

36.

Slovan Bratislava

2.1