Alvin Kamara’s Prospects for Fantasy Football in 2025

Overview of Alvin Kamara’s Career to Date

Alvin Kamara, entering his ninth NFL season in 2025, has established himself as one of the league’s most versatile and productive running backs. Since being drafted in the third round by the New Orleans Saints in 2017, Kamara immediately made an impact, winning Offensive Rookie of the Year honors thanks to his 728 rushing yards and 826 receiving yards on 81 receptions . Over his first eight seasons, he accumulated 6,779 rushing yards, 11,541 yards from scrimmage, and 86 total touchdowns, ranking as the Saints’ all-time leader in multiple categories, including rushing attempts and rushing touchdowns . His blend of receiving prowess and scoring efficiency has made him an annual fantasy football stalwart.

Age, Contract Status, and Offseason Developments

At 29 years old in 2025, Kamara sits at an age where running back production often begins to decline, yet his unique skill set—particularly as a pass-catcher—provides a buffer against the typical aging curve. Notably, the Saints and Kamara failed to finalize a contract extension by the Week 1 deadline, leaving his financial and long-term status in New Orleans a subject of offseason speculation . Despite the hold-up, head coach Kellen Moore emphasized that Kamara remains a “premiere player” and will be a “big part” of the offense in 2025, suggesting that playing time and usage will not diminish, contract aside .

Offensive Scheme and Coaching Influence

With Kellen Moore at the helm in his second season as Saints head coach, New Orleans embraces a balanced, pro-style scheme that leverages both ground and aerial attacks. Moore’s system historically features a committee approach at running back, yet Kamara’s pass-catching ability secures him heavy usage in third-down and red-zone situations. In 2024, he ranked top-two among running backs in receiving yards per game, targets per route run, and yards per route run—key indicators for multi-dimensional fantasy value . Moore’s preference for versatile backs who can exploit mismatches bodes well for Kamara’s continued involvement, particularly in PPR formats.

Backfield Competition and Depth Chart

The Saints bolstered their backfield depth this offseason by drafting Heisman finalist Devin Neal and retaining Kendre Miller and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, creating a trio of talented complementary backs . While these additions will serve as insurance against injury and potentially handle early-down work, none project as significant threats to Kamara’s role as lead back and primary receiving option. Further rumors surfaced about potentially pairing Kamara with veteran Austin Ekeler to maintain fresh legs, though no transaction has materialized to date . Overall, the backfield committee may cap Kamara’s pure rushing volume, but should have minimal impact on his passing-game targets.

Usage Metrics and Fantasy Implications

In the 2024 season, Kamara ranked seventh in snap share and sixth in opportunity share among all NFL running backs, demonstrating his integral role in the Saints’ offense . His ability to force missed tackles (32nd per attempt) and generate yards after contact (36th per attempt) saw declines, yet his receiving efficiency remained elite—a key differentiator in PPR leagues. In 2025, the sustained high target share, alongside potential red-zone volume, underpins expectations for 70–80 receptions, 600+ receiving yards, and a touchdown total in the double digits. Dynasty and best-ball managers will continue to prize Kamara for his pass-catching floor, even as his ground-yard upside moderates.

Fantasy Rankings and ADP

As of early May 2025, expert consensus rankings position Kamara as the 53rd overall player (ECR #53), with a best-case rank of #45 and worst-case of #66, reflecting both his high-ceiling upside and ongoing durability and age concerns . ESPN’s Mike Clay slots Kamara at RB13 in PPR formats, squarely placing him in the second running back tier, after the elite 1–12 RBs but ahead of those in the RB14–RB20 tier . Tristan H. Cockcroft’s May 7 update also echoes this sentiment, ranking Kamara within the top 15 running backs, thanks to his workhorse receiving role . Average draft position (ADP) data remains fluid, but most mock drafts show Kamara being selected in Rounds 4–5, offering mid-round value.

Projected Stat Line for 2025

Based on historical usage trends and Saints offensive pace, a reasonable projection for Kamara in 2025 includes:

• Rushing: 220 carries for 950 yards (4.3 YPC) and 8 TDs
• Receiving: 75 receptions for 650 yards (8.7 YPR) and 4 TDs
• Total: Approximately 1,600 scrimmage yards and 12 total touchdowns

This projection would translate to roughly 260 fantasy points in PPR formats (0.1 PPR) or 210 points in standard scoring, placing him between RB10 and RB15 value depending on weekly scoring distribution. His pass-catching floor ensures weekly relevance, while touchdown variance can swing his ceiling on any given Sunday.

Risk Factors

Several risks temper Kamara’s outlook:

1. Age-Related Decline: At age 29, running back efficiency often diminishes; Kamara’s contact metrics slipped in 2024, signaling potential further regression .
2. Contract Distraction: Ongoing negotiations could affect chemistry or snap counts early in the season if unresolved .
3. Injury History: While generally durable, Kamara missed games in past seasons due to lower-body injuries, and increased wear from receptions could heighten risk.
4. Emerging Competitors: If Devin Neal or other backs outperform expectations in training camp, a committee split could narrow Kamara’s opportunity share.

Fantasy managers should weigh these factors relative to Kamara’s proven production and secure mid-round ADP.

Comparative Analysis

When compared to peers in the second RB tier—such as Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, and Joe Mixon—Kamara’s receiving prowess affords him a stronger floor but possibly a lower ceiling in pure rushing output. In PPR leagues, he often outperforms counterparts based primarily on carries, yet risks of touchdown regression and age-related decline could see others surpassing him in non-PPR formats.

Draft Strategy Recommendations

• PPR Leagues: Target Kamara in Rounds 4–5 to lock in a high-floor pass-catching back.
• Standard Leagues: Consider drafting him slightly later (Rounds 5–6) to balance volume-based upside against touchdown volatility.
• Handcuff Consideration: While backup handcuffs hold value, the Saints’ committee and Kamara’s receiving role make pure handcuffing less critical; focus instead on securing a high-upside RB3.
• Roster Construction: Pair Kamara with an early-round bell cow (e.g., Bijan Robinson or Tony Pollard) to diversify risk between rushing and receiving profiles.

Conclusion

Alvin Kamara enters 2025 as a proven, versatile back whose receiving volume cements his fantasy floor. Despite age and contract uncertainties, his role in Kellen Moore’s offense remains secure, and projections suggest he can deliver RB1/2 production weekly. Managers drafting in the mid rounds should view Kamara as a cornerstone PPR asset, while standard-league drafters can capitalize on his touchdown upside. Balancing risk with his consistent target share, Kamara’s 2025 fantasy prospects remain bright, provided league settings favor receptions and total touches.