Can Arsenal overcome a one-goal deficit against PSG to secure a spot in the Champions League final? Here is what to expect from the Gunners in their pivotal second leg of the semi-final ✇️

Context and Stakes

Arsenal head into the Parc des Princes on Wednesday, May 7, 2025, trailing Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) by a single goal after a tightly contested first leg at the Emirates Stadium. A 1-0 defeat, courtesy of an early Ousmane Dembélé strike, means the Gunners must deliver an away performance for the ages if they are to reach their first Champions League final since 2006 . Mikel Arteta’s side will need to balance ambition with caution—pursuing the goals that take them through, while avoiding the counter-attacks that PSG specialise in.

Road to the Semi-Final

Arsenal’s route to this semi-final has been defined by both resilience and attacking flair. In the quarter-finals, they dispatched Real Madrid 5-1 on aggregate, overcoming a hostile Bernabéu crowd with composed defending and incisive finishing. Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli both found the net in the second leg, sealing a comprehensive victory that saw the Spaniards unable to muster any serious comeback . PSG, meanwhile, triumphed 5-4 on aggregate over Aston Villa, surviving a dramatic second-leg scare in Birmingham to book their place among Europe’s elite .

First Leg Recap

In that opening 0-1 home defeat, PSG’s victory was built on clinical efficiency and tactical cohesion. Luis Enrique’s side executed a high-pressing game plan, stifling Arsenal’s midfield and preventing any clear-cut chances in the first half. An early Dembélé finish was all they required, with the French champions then retreating into a disciplined defensive block, protected by a tireless press that choked the life out of the Gunners when they tried to build from deep . The result underlined PSG’s capacity to grind out results—even away from home—against top opposition.

Tactical Battle: Midfield and Press

At the heart of this tie is the midfield clash. PSG’s João Neves has been the engine of their press, leading Europe in high-pressure actions, while Arsenal’s midfield—and in particular Declan Rice—must find the balance between breaking lines and retaining shape . Arsenal have developed a reputation under Arteta for controlling games through quick passing transitions and wide overloads, but PSG’s back five, coordinated by Marquinhos, will look to suffocate the spaces between the lines. Winning the battle for midfield control could prove decisive.

Arsenal’s Key Strengths

1. Prolific Away Form: The Gunners have scored 16 goals in four away matches in this European campaign, underscoring their attacking intent on the road .
2. Return of Thomas Partey: Suspended for the first leg, Arsenal’s midfield enforcer is back, adding steel and forward thrust. Partey’s ability to break up play and recycle possession quickly could be the catalyst Arsenal need .
3. Wide Creativity: Bukayo Saka has had a hand in 15 Champions League goals (9 goals, 6 assists) and scored in each of his last two away European matches—a stat that highlights his game-changing potential .

PSG’s Defensive Solidity and Threats

PSG’s defensive record in this season’s Champions League has been impressive. They’ve progressed from eight of their last 12 knockout ties after winning the first leg, including five of six when triumphing away from home—showing their knack for managing leads . At the back, midfield shielded, and with Dembélé, Lionel Messi (if fit), and Kylian Mbappé (even if on the bench), they possess match-winners capable of exploiting any lapse in concentration. Their home record—losing only two games at the Parc des Princes all season—further underscores the challenge Arsenal face .

Historical Precedents and Head-to-Head

Overcoming a one-goal semi-final deficit at this stage is rare. Only Ajax in 1995/96 and Tottenham in 2018/19 have managed to overturn a home first-leg defeat to reach the Champions League final . Arsenal’s own history is scarred by six unsuccessful semi-finals without scoring after a first-leg loss, and they have dropped more points domestically compared to last season—underlining a slight dip in consistency . In head-to-head encounters, PSG’s first-leg victory was their first against Arsenal in six tries (D3 L2), but Arsenal have lost just once in nine European away games against French opposition .

Team News and Potential XIs

• Arsenal:
  • In: Thomas Partey returns from suspension; Gabriel Jesus could push for a recall up front.
  • Out: Jakub Kiwior (knee), Jurrien Timber (calf) remain doubts.
• PSG:
  • In: Ousmane Dembélé is confirmed fit after a late hamstring scare; Achraf Hakimi and Nuno Mendes complete a formidable full-back duo.
  • Out: Marco Verratti continues to recover from a thigh issue; Lionel Messi’s availability will be confirmed on the eve of the game .

Predicted Lineups

Expert Views and Predictions

• Gary Neville believes Arsenal can exploit PSG’s potential nerves in big European nights, noting, “PSG get very nervous if the wrong things happen for them in that stadium,” and that the Gunners possess the composure to strike early and unsettle their hosts .
• Opta Simulations give PSG a 45.4% chance to win in 90 minutes, with Arsenal’s likelihood at 30.0% and the draw at 24.6%—suggesting a genuine opportunity for the visitors if they play to their strengths .

What to Expect

1. High Intensity Start: Arteta’s men may look to score early to force PSG out of their shell, exploiting space left by attacking full-backs.
2. Midfield Battles: Expect fierce duels between Partey and Neves—control here could dictate the flow.
3. Set-Piece Importance: Both sides have physical threats at dead balls; a single corner or free-kick could be decisive.
4. Tactical Flexibility: Arteta may switch to a 4-2-3-1 if chasing the game, while Luis Enrique might deploy a narrow press to prevent Arsenal’s wide overloads.

Conclusion

Arsenal’s quest to overcome a one-goal deficit against PSG in Paris is fraught with challenges, but not without precedent or promise. The return of key personnel, combined with their away scoring record and tactical acumen, provides genuine hope. PSG’s defensive solidity and home advantage, however, cannot be understated. If Arsenal can seize control of the midfield, unbalance PSG with incisive wide play, and maintain defensive discipline, they stand a real chance of writing a new chapter in their European story. A place in the Champions League final awaits—but only if the Gunners can produce the magic moments that Mikel Arteta, Declan Rice, and this ambitious squad have been seeking all season.