NFL News: Tyler Shough and Derek Carr will be the next starting quarterbacks selected by Alvin Kamara’s Saints.

Below is an in-depth look at how the New Orleans Saints, led vocally by star running back Alvin Kamara, are navigating the tightrope of quarterback succession—with veteran Derek Carr’s health in question and rookie Tyler Shough poised to compete for Day 1 starts in 2025.

In brief, the Saints used their second-round pick (No. 40 overall) on Louisville’s Tyler Shough, a 6’5″ quarterback lauded for his arm talent and resilience after seven college seasons marred by injuries . Meanwhile, four-time Pro Bowler Derek Carr, under contract through 2026, has confirmed a lingering shoulder issue that casts doubt on his Week 1 availability, fueling the team’s decision to prepare Shough for an early role . Alvin Kamara, witnessing this uncertainty, has publicly urged unity and confidence in whichever signal-caller emerges, underscoring the team’s need for stability behind center .

Historical Context and Carr’s Tenure

Carr’s Arrival and Early Success

Derek Carr signed with the Saints in March 2023 on a four-year, $150 million deal, arriving as a proven veteran after a decade with the Raiders .
He started 14 games in 2023, leading New Orleans to an NFC South title and earning a Pro Bowl nod .
In 2024, Carr managed only 10 appearances due to midseason injuries—including a back strain and concussion—which limited his effectiveness down the stretch .

Emerging Health Concerns

In mid-April 2025, reports surfaced that Carr had been playing through a shoulder issue unknown even to some coaches until just before offseason workouts .
Carr publicly confirmed the injury during a church sermon on April 27, providing MRI evidence and lamenting media speculation .
He criticized outlets like ESPN for “fabricating” his status and stressed that the Saints’ medical staff is fully apprised and managing his rehab .

The Tyler Shough Factor

Draft Profile and Skill Set

The Saints traded up in Round 2 to select Shough, a 25-year-old with pro-caliber size (6’5″, 235 lbs) and arm strength, despite a limited 42-game college resume due to injuries .
Scouts praise his deep-ball accuracy, pocket poise, and capacity to extend plays—critical traits in Kellen Moore’s offense .
Shough’s maturity and character, honed by rehabbing multiple torn ligaments, appealed to a Saints organization valuing resilience .

Immediate Expectations

Saints interim coach Kellen Moore has indicated Shough will be integrated heavily in spring drills, immediately challenging Carr for reps .
Unless Carr proves fully recovered by training camp, Shough is widely regarded as the frontrunner for Week 1 starts .
Even Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener, on the roster, are seen as longer-term projects, leaving Shough and Carr in a two-man battle .

Alvin Kamara’s Influence

Vocal Leadership

Alvin Kamara has emerged as a clubhouse leader, publicly emphasizing support for his quarterback room regardless of the outcome .
He has noted that offensive continuity—anchored by a trustworthy passer—will be vital to maximize his and wideouts Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed’s production .
Kamara’s own durability and play-making versatility mean he depends on precise passing, heightening his stake in the QB decision .

Strategic Implications

With Kamara’s contract up after 2025, the team’s ability to maintain playoff contention may hinge on long-term QB stability .
Investing in Shough as a potential franchise quarterback could align with salary-cap planning, given Carr’s escalating cap hit in 2026 .

Coaching Perspective and Front Office Strategy

Kellen Moore’s Offense

Moore’s offensive scheme emphasizes quick reads, deep shots, and quarterback mobility—all areas where Shough’s traits align, but Carr’s experience offers consistency .
Moore has publicly stated that health and performance in minicamp will dictate starting status, hinting at an open competition model .

GM Mickey Loomis’s Cap and Roster Moves

General manager Mickey Loomis restructured Carr’s contract in March 2025 to create cap space, underscoring a balancing act between veteran security and youthful upside .
The $27 million free-agent cap space could be allocated toward bolstering the offensive line or adding a veteran backup, setting the stage for a multi-pronged QB plan .

Potential Scenarios for 2025

Scenario 1: Carr Returns Healthy

If Carr’s shoulder heals by August, his experience and prior success could earn Week 1 nod—with Shough groomed as his primary backup .
This scenario gives the Saints short-term stability but risks repeating midseason injury disruptions .

Scenario 2: Shough Wins the Job

An injury-related absence by Carr could thrust Shough into the starter role immediately, accelerating his development but placing pressure on a rookie in a division with Cincinnati and Tampa Bay .
Success here could alter the franchise trajectory, anchoring the offense for years if Shough meets expectations .

Scenario 3: Hybrid Approach

The Saints could stagger reps in games and practices—utilizing Carr for short-yardage and Shough on downfield throws—mirroring two-quarterback packages seen in college .
This innovative approach, though rare in the NFL, could optimize both players’ strengths and extend Carr’s career while developing Shough .

Expert Analysis and Fan Reaction

Media Perspectives

ESPN’s Mike Clay ranks Shough among the top mid-round QB prospects, noting his risk/reward profile fits the Saints’ current timeline .
CBS Sports lists New Orleans as the most likely landing spot for a rookie QB to start immediately in 2025—primarily on account of Carr’s injury uncertainty .

Social Media and Local Sentiment

On Reddit’s r/Saints, opinions are split: some applaud the boldness in drafting Shough, others worry about rookie growing pains .
Saints Wire (USA Today) polling shows 62% of surveyed fans hope Shough starts Week 1, reflecting excitement about fresh talent .

Before diving deeper into the myriad factors shaping the Saints’ quarterback saga, here’s a concise overview: New Orleans finds itself at a pivotal juncture as veteran Derek Carr battles a lingering shoulder injury that threatens his availability, while rookie Tyler Shough—despite injury-shortened college résumé—brings pro-style size, arm talent, and maturity that fit Kellen Moore’s offensive vision . Contractually, Carr is in Year 3 of a four-year, $150 million pact—$100 million guaranteed—unsigned through 2026, and his recent offseason restructuring yielded over $28 million in cap relief but escalates his 2026 cap hit, incentivizing the Saints to assess a cheaper, youthful alternative . Meanwhile, Shough’s selection at No. 40 overall was viewed by some as a reach, yet scouts and coaches highlight his 6′5″ frame, deep-ball accuracy, and resilience forged through seven seasons and 42 games of collegiate adversity . With Alvin Kamara’s leadership underscoring the need for precision and continuity, the club has crafted an open competition—one that may adopt hybrid packages, real-time rep adjustments, or even a week-by-week quarterback plan—ultimately aiming to stabilize the offense for sustained contention .

Advanced Metrics & Analytics

Completion Efficiency and Decision Speed

Analytics platforms grade Carr’s 2024 adjusted completion percentage (which removes drops, spikes, and throwaways) at 73.1%, ranking him 12th among qualifiers, but his average time to throw climbed to 2.94 seconds—downfield performance hampered by missed protection and his own health limitations . Tyler Shough’s college tape reveals a similar time-to-throw profile (approx. 2.8 seconds), but his clean-pocket completion rate of 69.4% in 2024 suggests a quick-trigger accuracy that bodes well in quick-read concepts . The Saints’ analytics staff values Shough’s 24.7 yards per completion on deep throws (throws ≥ 20 yards), which ranked seventh nationally among Power 5 starters—an indicator of his explosiveness downfield .

Pressure Handling & Mobility

Under duress, Carr converted just 22.3% of third-down opportunities while under pressure—an area where his declining mobility and the shoulder issue have been flagged as concerns . Conversely, Shough posted a 58.7 QB rating when pressured in Senior Bowl practices, showcasing pocket escapability and a willingness to throw on the move—traits that mesh with Kellen Moore’s design for “plays within plays” .

Contract & Cap Implications

Carr’s Financial Structure

Derek Carr’s deal carries an average annual value of $37.5 million, with a $28.5 million signing bonus and fully guaranteed 2023–24 base salaries . His 2025 salary includes a $10 million roster bonus due in March, vesting if he remains on the roster; failing to play could cost the Saints up to $30 million in guarantees, making a wholesale move unlikely unless a trade partner absorbs those guarantees . By restructuring $28 million of 2024 salary into bonus money, Carr carved out $27 million in cap space for 2025—funds the Saints can deploy on offensive-line depth, a veteran backup, or additional defensive reinforcements .

Shough’s Cost-Benefit Profile

As a second-round pick, Shough carries a four-year rookie contract with a cap hit peaking at roughly $5.2 million in Year 3—one-sixth of Carr’s 2026 cap number—making him an economically attractive candidate should he win the job . His minimal dead-cap implications allow the Saints to pivot quickly if the competition tilts back in Carr’s favor or if they seek to add a veteran later without significant financial drag .

Comparative Rookie Outlook

Peers & Historical Precedents

Comparing Shough to recent mid-round QBs: Brock Purdy (R 4, 2022) and Jake Browning (R 4, 2018) both took over late but thrived; Shough’s advanced age (25 upon rookie camp) and maturity may accelerate his learning curve . However, unlike Purdy—whose offense pivoted entirely around his skill set—New Orleans retains personnel and schematic continuity, reducing adaptation friction for Shough .

Coaching Tailoring

Kellen Moore’s offense, ranked No. 4 in neutral-situation EPA/play in 2024, can flex the playbook to accentuate Shough’s strengths (play-action shot plays, quick-slant exchanges) while also sheltering him with inverted splits and max protection—elements already shown in Senior Bowl and rookie minicamp sessions . The staff’s willingness to dial up “jumbo” and “12-personnel” packages with Kamara on hand speaks to an approach that leverages Shough’s mobility alongside veteran tight ends and a deep backfield .

Timeline to Starting Decision

Risk Factors & Mitigation

• Injury Recurrence: Carr’s shoulder may require surgery if pain persists, risking multi-week absence . The Saints have accelerated sports-medicine oversight and built a situational depth chart with Rattler and Haener as emergency options .
• Rookie Growing Pains: Shough’s limited in-game reps demand cautious play-calling early; the offense will lean on high-percentage throws (Y-cross, stick-concepts) before expanding his reads .
• Chemistry with Playmakers: Time with Olave, Shaheed, and Kamara in live reps is crucial; OTA QB-WR drills and joint route-tree installs aim to fast-track rapport .

Social Media & Fan Pulse

Fan sentiment on Reddit’s r/Saints splits roughly 55/45 in favor of giving Shough Week 1 duties—a testament to excitement over his traits and frustration over Carr’s health uncertainties . USA Today’s Saints Wire polling echoes the trend, with 63% of fans wanting to see Shough command the offense immediately, while 27% still trust Carr’s veteran steadiness . Local beat writers—including WWL’s Jeff Nowak—note that locker-room chatter remains respectful but tinged with urgency, as players recognize the slim margin for error in a loaded NFC South .

Conclusion

In sum, New Orleans stands at a strategic inflection point: preserve continuity with a proven veteran whose body may betray him, or pivot to a rookie with tantalizing physical and mental traits against the backdrop of cap efficiency and long-term planning. With Alvin Kamara’s multifaceted skill set hinging on precise quarterback play, Kellen Moore’s offensive creativity, and Mickey Loomis’s roster-building acumen, the Saints will let performance and health fully dictate their 2025 quarterback hierarchy—ushering in what could be the franchise’s next defining era.

The Saints stand at a crossroads: honor veteran Derek Carr’s contract and experience, or pivot swiftly to rookie Tyler Shough, whose combination of physical tools and mental toughness align with Alvin Kamara’s championship aspirations. With Kamara’s leadership, Kellen Moore’s system, and Mickey Loomis’s cap acumen all in play, New Orleans will reveal its preference through training-camp performance and early-season availability. No matter which quarterback emerges, Alvin Kamara’s electric presence ensures the offense will demand precision—an exacting test for whoever dons the black-and-gold in 2025.