Nick Saban forecasts an upset in the SEC for Week 10 college football selections.

Nick Saban’s surprising selection of Arkansas over Ole Miss for Week 10 of SEC play has sent ripples through college football, offering a fresh narrative in a season defined by unpredictability. As an analyst on ESPN’s College GameDay, Saban leveraged his vast coaching experience to identify key vulnerabilities in the No. 18 Rebels and pinpoint strengths in the unranked Razorbacks. His forecast not only underscores his enduring football acumen but also spotlights a pivotal Western Division clash that could reshape the SEC title race.

Saban’s Unexpected Week 10 SEC Upset Forecast

In a recent appearance on College GameDay, Nick Saban broke from conventional wisdom by predicting that the Arkansas Razorbacks would pull off a road upset against Lane Kiffin’s No. 18 Ole Miss Rebels in Week 10 SEC action . Coming off a dominant showing in his analyst role, Saban noted Arkansas’s balanced offensive attack and rising defensive play as factors primed to derail the Rebels’ playoff aspirations .

The Arkansas–Ole Miss Rivalry

The Arkansas–Ole Miss series is one of the SEC’s oldest rivalries, dating back to October 10, 1908, when Arkansas claimed a 33–0 victory . Through 71 meetings, Arkansas maintains a narrow edge, leading 38–30–1 per Razorback records (37–31–1 per Ole Miss) . The matchup has featured two historic seven-overtime battles (most notably the 2001 58–56 Arkansas victory) and remains a staple of the conference schedule. Their most recent encounter on November 2, 2024, saw Ole Miss prevail 63–31, but the recent competitive balance underscores why Saban’s prediction resonated so strongly .

Team Analysis

Arkansas Razorbacks: Underdog on Upset Watch

Entering Week 10, the Razorbacks stood at 5–4 overall (3–3 in SEC play), seeking to build momentum in Fayetteville . Under head coach Sam Pittman, Arkansas has developed a physical rushing attack led by running back Ja’Quinden Jackson and a defense that excels in creating turnovers. The Razorbacks have demonstrated resilience in close games, notably their narrow comeback losses and a signature victory over a ranked opponent earlier in the season, showcasing their capacity to compete with top-tier teams. Pittman’s emphasis on discipline and third-down efficiency has kept Arkansas within striking distance in every contest, making them a plausible upset candidate on any given week.

Ole Miss Rebels: Favored but Vulnerable

Lane Kiffin’s Rebels entered Week 10 at 7–2 overall (3–2 SEC), ranked No. 18 in the AP poll . Boasting one of the nation’s most explosive offenses—averaging over 650 yards per game—and led by quarterback Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss appeared well-positioned for a deep SEC West run. However, key vulnerabilities emerged: a pass rush that struggled against mobile quarterbacks, secondary lapses yielding big plays, and occasional offensive line breakdowns in high-pressure spots. The Rebels’ surprising loss to Florida earlier in the season and narrow escapes against unranked foes exposed potential cracks that a disciplined Arkansas squad could exploit.

What Fuels Saban’s Upset Prediction

Several factors likely influenced Saban’s forecast:

1. Location and Atmosphere: Playing in Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium, where Arkansas enjoys a fervent home crowd, can tilt momentum. Saban has long emphasized the impact of hostile environments on visiting teams.
2. Physical Style: Pittman’s ground-and-pound philosophy contrasts with Kiffin’s air raid, setting up a classic power-versus-speed matchup. Saban noted that Arkansas’s ability to control the line of scrimmage could slow Ole Miss’s tempo and create turnovers.
3. Defensive Scheme: Arkansas’s aggressive front four has shown capacity to disrupt timing, a trait Saban highlighted as critical against high-octane offenses.
4. Rebels’ Midseason Inconsistencies: Saban pointed to Ole Miss’s “in-game lapses” and inconsistency in third-down defense as exploitable weaknesses . His history of identifying opponent-specific tendencies lends weight to his prediction.

Saban’s Upset Track Record

While celebrated for national championships, Saban has also built a reputation for savvy underdog picks. In the 2023 SEC Championship Game, he famously predicted the Texas Longhorns would upset Georgia in a rematch, choosing Steve Sarkisian’s squad over his former assistant Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs . His willingness to buck consensus has infused his analyst role with genuine intrigue, as he draws on decades of film study and coaching battles to spot the intangibles that sway outcomes.

Broader Implications for the SEC

An Arkansas victory would not only derail Ole Miss’s playoff push but also reshape the SEC West landscape:

• Division Standings: Ole Miss dropping to 7–3 (3–3 SEC) while Arkansas improves to 6–4 (4–3 SEC) tightens the West race and elevates Arkansas’s bowl prospects.
• Playoff Picture: With teams like Georgia and Alabama already locking up berths, Ole Miss would lose critical résumé points, likely falling out of CFP contention.
• Coaching Momentum: A landmark road win would bolster Sam Pittman’s status and provide valuable recruiting leverage, whereas Kiffin would face scrutiny for not protecting home turf.
• Conference Perception: The SEC’s reputation for parity—already tested by surprise losses across the league—would deepen, emphasizing that no team is invulnerable.

Here’s a deeper dive into the Arkansas–Ole Miss Week 10 showdown, expanding on betting dynamics, tactical matchups, star performers and the broader stakes—all bolstered by expert data and projections.

Summary of Key Findings

Ole Miss opened as a 6‑point favorite at Arkansas, but line movement and Football Power Index (FPI) metrics underscore the Razorbacks’ upset potential in Fayetteville . Arkansas’s stout defensive front and physical rushing attack could disrupt Ole Miss’s high‑octane passing game led by Jaxson Dart, who ranks among the nation’s most prolific quarterbacks . Meanwhile, Ja’Quinden Jackson’s 790 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns give Arkansas a legitimate ground‑and‑pound identity that thrives in hostile environments . Ultimately, this contest carries major implications for SEC West standings, CFP aspirations and recruiting narratives across the conference.

Betting Outlook and Line Movement

Ole Miss opened as a 6‑point favorite on the road, with an over/under of 55.5 points; money‑line odds stood at Ole Miss –240 and Arkansas +200 . Since the release, sharp action has chipped the spread slightly, reflecting growing confidence in Arkansas’s ability to control the line of scrimmage and limit explosive passing plays . ESPN’s FPI still gives Ole Miss a 74% chance to win by 9.4 points, but that model also assigns Arkansas a non‑negligible upset probability, mirroring Saban’s forecast .

Key Matchups to Watch

• Arkansas Defensive Front vs. Ole Miss Offensive Line
  Arkansas ranks among the SEC’s top defenses in tackles for loss and quarterback pressures, thanks to an aggressive front four . Ole Miss’s offensive line has struggled at times to handle speed‑to‑power rushers, giving Arkansas a clear path to disrupting timing .
• Jaxson Dart vs. Razorback Secondary
  Dart has amassed 4,279 passing yards, 29 touchdowns and a QBR of 86.3, ranking fourth nationally . Arkansas’s secondary must avoid breakdowns that have led to big plays this season, particularly against deep threats like Jordan Watkins .
• Turnover Battle and Special Teams
  Arkansas leads the SEC in takeaways per game, often flipping field position . Ole Miss’s kick return game and red‑zone efficiency will also factor heavily; any short fields could undo Arkansas’s tempo control.

Player Spotlights

Jaxson Dart, Quarterback, Ole Miss

Dart has thrown for 4,279 yards and 29 touchdowns against just six interceptions in 2024, boasting a passer rating (QBR) of 86.3 . He eclipses 300 passing yards in 75% of games and ranks second nationally in yards per game (350.8) . His ability to create off‑script plays and exploit man coverage makes him the linchpin of Lane Kiffin’s offense .

Ja’Quinden Jackson, Running Back, Arkansas

Jackson leads Arkansas with 790 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns on 149 carries, averaging 5.3 yards per attempt . He’s broken the century‑yard mark three times this season (including a 147‑yard effort vs. UAB) and consistently wears down defenses late in games . His power‑back style complements Sam Pittman’s physical philosophy and gives Arkansas a reliable check‑down when passing lanes close.

Coaching Chess Match

Sam Pittman’s emphasis on physicality and clock management contrasts sharply with Lane Kiffin’s tempo‑driven, pass‑first approach . Saban highlighted Pittman’s ability to adjust fronts and disguises at the line—an attribute that could confuse Ole Miss’s protection schemes . Conversely, Kiffin’s rapid play‑calling and motion packages aim to keep Arkansas’s front from setting and to force defenders into open space .

Broader Stakes and Implications

• SEC West Title Race: An Arkansas upset would pull both teams into a three‑way tie if Alabama wins its weekend game, intensifying Week 11 and Week 12 showdowns .
• College Football Playoff: A sudden loss would likely end Ole Miss’s CFP hopes, opening the door for a two‑loss SEC team to sneak in .
• Recruiting Momentum: Arkansas beating a ranked, high‑profile opponent can fuel in‑state recruiting battles, while Ole Miss must shore up defensive recruiting after several midseason breakdowns .

Conclusion

With Saban’s analyst insight shining a spotlight on Arkansas’s upset chances, Week 10’s Arkansas–Ole Miss contest promises a compelling clash of styles, star power and high stakes. Whether the Razorbacks ride their physical identity to victory or the Rebels’ aerial assault prevails, this game could very well determine the trajectory of the SEC West and playoff field.

Nick Saban’s Week 10 upset forecast—Arkansas over No. 18 Ole Miss—highlights his enduring influence on college football discourse. By identifying key matchup dynamics and capitalizing on his analytical prowess, Saban has placed a spotlight on a game that could reshape the SEC West and playoff narratives. Whether the Razorbacks seize the moment or the Rebels weather the storm, Saban’s bold pick ensures that all eyes will be on Fayetteville this Saturday.