What is actually going on behind the perplexing Alexander Isak transfer saga?

Newcastle United’s Alexander Isak is not for sale, despite Eddie Howe’s assurance that he will “be here at the start of the season.” However, there is still much doubt within the club. Many people are worried. There is growing concern that Isak’s head has been turned, which is exacerbated by the club’s transfer market difficulties. The 25-year-old is entering his prime, and simply qualifying for the Champions League is no longer enough.

Howe’s admission that he had to send a player home from a pre-season friendly due to rumors is not promising. In these conditions, that is an unusual and conspicuous decision. Some teammates won’t even speculate on his future. Even though Howe claimed Isak is “happy at Newcastle,” he continued to make alarming statements. “I respect a player’s career and how short it is” was one of them.

The concern is not about Newcastle’s stance, but if Isak will actively seek to depart. Most people believed that was implausible given his personality, but it isn’t being expressed with the same conviction. The transfer window might bring unforeseen forces and twists. When there is money on the table, everything changes dramatically. Isak may have to agitate to secure this. Some wonder if it will be too late.

Those close to Isak’s group have emphasized since last year that his future is not “clear cut” and that this was always going to be “a big summer”. Newcastle’s contentious but nearly limitlessly wealthy ownership may mean they have even less need to sell than anybody else, but no squad needs a player who doesn’t want to be there.

So it all boils down to how far Isak’s head has been turned.

There is one major caveat to all of this discussion, and that is the size of any potential price. Isak is worth approximately £150 million, and Newcastle will not contemplate anything less.

While every club wants Isak, very few can purchase him outright, and only a few have the funds this summer.

Real Madrid does not have the space and will need to sell in those spots because they prefer midfield. Barcelona has the need but lacks the budget, as evidenced by their decision to sign Marcus Rashford on loan. Paris Saint-Germain may be one to watch here, as he fits the profile of the new Champions League winners. The word is that they are still working on other areas. Bayern Munich definitely has something close to the funds and the need, since they have already investigated deals worth around £100 million for Florian Wirtz and Luis Diaz. They just haven’t been highlighted as a club Isak may be interested in attending.

Newcastle’s Premier League rivals are likely to be a source of frustration.

Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur are barely worth discussing. Chelsea have definitely considered it, given co-owner Behdad Eghbali’s penchant for player trading, but Isak would necessitate a significant modification to the salary structure, and there is presently no genuine indication that anything will happen. Manchester City have spent £350 million since January, depleting much of their PSR headroom. Liverpool would have to fork out an additional £120 million to equal that level this year, demonstrating how a recent reluctance to spend has afforded them such leeway this summer.

Eddie Howe left Alexander Isak out of Newcastle’s pre-season friendly against Celtic ‘due to speculation over his future’ (Getty Images)

Everyone is watching what happens next, and no one in football understands the situation so far.

Liverpool appears to be interested in Isak, but has denied making contact with Newcastle. Other sources claim there has been contact, amidst much conjecture about “power plays” and multi-layered schemes. There is speculation that Liverpool has targeted Newcastle target Hugo Ekitike in an attempt to force the Isak situation, but if this is the case, you would not make a bid to Eintracht Frankfurt. They are visibly and seriously working on another deal.

Except, according to sources close to the negotiations, they haven’t moved as rapidly as expected, and Frankfurt has also expressed frustration with the pace of the process. All of this contributes to the intrigue surrounding Howe’s decision to leave Isak out of the Celtic encounter.

Finally, we have Arsenal. They have long been regarded as Isak’s strongest suitor, and the player had previously expressed interest in joining them.

Arsenal are just one of many Premier League clubs, Liverpool included, who hold an interest in signing the Newcastle forward (REUTERS)

Arsenal is actively looking to buy a forward. They have not yet signed Sporting’s Viktor Gyokeres. They’re expected to go large. Mikel Arteta adores Isak and considers him ideal.

A quick transition seems reasonable until you encounter the pure logic of numbers.

Arsenal does not now have the budget to sign Isak. After all, this is a team that has been fighting over a £5 million difference in Gyokeres add-on fees. Are we really expecting them to suddenly jump £70 million more?

The greater intrigue is that Arsenal does have PSR headroom. Many attribute this to the ownership’s willingness to spend and the amount of monies released. The Kroenkes would desire their club to be completely responsible, with no risk in this area. Other sources might describe this as overt conservatism, if not frugality, at a time when the team has a great opportunity to make history. Until recently, their pay spend was about £60 million less than Liverpool’s, let alone City’s.

That is understood to have caused considerable frustration. Arteta has also strongly and successfully fought for the budget to be released this summer, which is why some well-placed insiders believe it is highly improbable that they will do so again.

However, this could mean the difference between current glory and potential future riches.

Mikel Arteta can make the case that Isak is the type of player to ‘transform’ Arsenal in the ways they need to improve (REUTERS)

It’s difficult not to think that Arteta should emulate Sir Alex Ferguson and make a strong case to the board that this is one of those exceptional players who can change everything; that this is someone you change plans for. This is especially true given that Liverpool, the champs, might yet sign him. It’s not only about what you do.

Many people in Newcastle will undoubtedly be shocked by such a talk. He’s still their player and appears unlikely to leave.

There, however, it is difficult not to agree with what Howe said. It is difficult “to give 100% clarity” on this.