Prediction: Who will win the 2025 NCAA Tournament first round between Louisville and Creighton basketball?

AI-aided summary

• No. 8 Louisville will face No. 9 Creighton at 12:15 p.m. Thursday inside Rupp Arena, beginning two days of relentless NCAA Tournament action.
• KenPom predicts a 60% likelihood of Louisville winning the game.

Pat Kelsey’s Louisville basketball team will face a team that has progressed to the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight in three of the last four NCAA Tournaments, as a reward for their strong start.

U of L (27-7), the No. 8 seed in the South region, begins two days of uninterrupted basketball at 12:15 p.m. Thursday (CBS) vs. No. 9 Creighton (24-10) at Lexington’s Rupp Arena—its first taste of March Madness since 2019.

“An explosive team,” Kelsey told Matt Jones and Myron Medcalf on ESPN Radio Sunday night. “A dangerous team — extremely well-coached.”

During Greg McDermott’s 15th season, Creighton ended the regular season with a record of 22-9 overall and 15-5 Big East. The team defeated DePaul and UConn to go to the conference tournament title game at Madison Square Garden, but lost to Hall of Famer Rick Pitino and St. John’s 82-66.

Two years ago, the Bluejays began their run to the Elite Eight as a No. 6 seed. They advanced to the KFC Yum! Centre and lost to No. 5 San Diego State 57-56.

The winner of Thursday’s game will play either Auburn, the tournament’s top seed, or the winner of a No. 16 play-in game between Alabama State and Saint Francis on Saturday. But one thing at a time; here’s a closer look at the Cardinals’ first opponent:

Ryan Kalkbrenner is Creighton’s go-to man.

Ryan Kalkbrenner, a 7-foot-1 unanimous first-team All-Big East pick, leads Creighton in scoring with 19.4 points and a league-best 66.3% shooting rate.

The Florissant, Missouri, native is also the Jays’ leading rebounder (8.8) and leads the Big East in blocks per game with 2.7. In addition, he is the only Division I player with more dunks than Louisville’s James Scott, completing 103 of 111 tries.

Kelsey’s frontcourt has been weak since Kasean Pryor tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee in November, making Kalkbrenner a difficult opponent even at full strength.

In the ACC Tournament, U of L faced several excellent bigs, including Stanford’s Maxime Raynaud, Clemson’s Viktor Lakhin and Ian Schieffelin, and Duke’s Khaman Maluach. Over three games at the Spectrum Centre in Charlotte, North Carolina, it was +10 in paint scoring (100-90), +8 in rebounding (108-100), and +14 in second-chance points (36-22).

Creighton’s sharpshooter: Steven Ashworth.

Creighton began the NCAA Tournament shooting 33.9% (321 for 947) from three-point range and limiting opponents to 32.7% (257 for 786). Louisville is at 33% (320 for 970) and 33.7% (267 for 792).

The Cards’ top marksman, Reyne Smith, is expected to return from a damaged right ankle.

As of Sunday morning, senior guard Steven Ashworth leads the Jays with 103 three-pointers on 279 tries, ranking 16th in DI. He is one of McDermott’s four players with a clip of 35% or higher from deep. He also ranks second on the team in scoring with 16.3 points per game and has a top-25 assist rate on KenPom.

U of L’s loss against Duke in the ACC Tournament final game was primarily due to poor 3-point defence and a lack of outside shooting. The Blue Devils finished 10 for 27 (37%) while holding Kelsey’s squad to 7 for 26 (26.9%).

During Smith’s four-game absence, Louisville shot 26/93 (27.9%) from three.

Creighton’s weakness: ‘kill shots’

Evan Miyakawa, founder of EvanMiya.com, released a graphic on X (previously Twitter) on Feb. 19 that analysed DI teams’ susceptibility to “kill shots,” defined as streaks of 10 or more unanswered points adjusted for competition strength.

Creighton was classified as a “suspect team” at the time, since they let up an average of 0.5 more runs per game than they scored. As a result, Miyakawa described the Jays as “never trustworthy.”

Time for a “Kill Shot” graph update! A Kill Shot is any time a team goes on a 10-0 run or better.

The graph shows how many runs a team has per game and how many runs they concede, adjusted for competition 👇 pic.twitter.com/Hm6DDFzxRc

— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) February 19, 2025

Louisville, on the other hand, was doing considerably better, with values of less than 0.4 and more than 0.6.

To its credit, Creighton has made strides in this area. As of Sunday, with a speed of 68.1 possessions per game, it was averaging 0.62 kill shots (21 total) and 0.44 allowed (15).

With a tempo of 69.8, the Cards were at 0.59 (20) and 0.29 (10).

Louisville versus Creighton Prediction: March Madness Round of 64

According to KenPom, Louisville has a 60% probability of defeating Creighton and is projected to win 75-72. With a noisy “neutral-site” crowd behind it — and a chip on its shoulder after feeling slighted by the selection committee — I’ll take Kelsey’s team to pull out a win, his first in an NCAA Tournament game, in a somewhat lower-scoring battle than the algorithms predict.

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Brooks Holton, a Louisville men’s basketball reporter, may be reached at bholton@gannett.com and followed on X at @brooksHolton.

Coach Pat Kelsey of the University of Louisiana men’s basketball team reacts to Junior Bridgeman’s passing

University of Louisville men’s basketball coach Pat Kelsey expressed deep sorrow over the passing of Junior Bridgeman, a revered figure in Louisville’s history. In a heartfelt statement, Kelsey remarked that Bridgeman was “so much more than a basketball player,” highlighting his brilliance in business and his status as one of Louisville’s greatest citizens. He also noted Bridgeman’s extensive philanthropy, mentioning the countless acts of kindness and generosity he performed anonymously for those in need. Kelsey extended his prayers to Bridgeman’s beloved family during this difficult time.

Junior Bridgeman, who passed away at the age of 71, was not only a legend on the basketball court but also a successful entrepreneur and philanthropist. His contributions to the community and his legacy both on and off the court have left an indelible mark on Louisville and beyond.

Louisville Fans Rejoice as Pat Kelsey Leads Remarkable Turnaround in First Year

Louisville, KY – The University of Louisville men’s basketball team has made an incredible resurgence under first-year head coach Pat Kelsey, bringing new life to the program and restoring excitement among Cardinals fans.

A New Era Begins

After two difficult seasons that saw the program struggle with a combined 12-52 record, the Cardinals have found new momentum under Kelsey, who took over the reins in March 2024. With his high-energy coaching style and emphasis on teamwork, Louisville has exceeded expectations, boasting a 20-6 record and a strong standing in the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC).

Kelsey’s arrival from the College of Charleston injected a winning mentality into the team, and the results were almost immediate. Louisville opened the season with a dominant 93-45 victory over Morehead State, setting the tone for a campaign filled with statement wins, including an 83-70 triumph over North Carolina in early January.

Transfers Spark Louisville’s Revival

Key to Louisville’s turnaround has been the contributions of transfer players, particularly guard Chucky Hepburn, who has led the team in scoring on multiple occasions. Reyne Smith and Terrence Edwards Jr. have also played crucial roles, providing experience and leadership that have helped propel the Cardinals to a 10-game winning streak, their best in five years.

“The culture here has changed completely,” Hepburn said after the team’s latest victory. “Coach Kelsey expects the best from us every day, and we’ve all bought into it.”

Fans Embrace the Rebuild

Perhaps the most noticeable shift has been the atmosphere at the KFC Yum! Center, where sellout crowds have returned, fueling the team’s confidence. Louisville’s fanbase, known for its passion, has rallied behind Kelsey and his players, embracing the fresh energy and aggressive playing style he has implemented.

Kelsey himself has leaned into the city’s enthusiasm, frequently engaging with students and celebrating wins with emotional postgame interactions.

“This city loves its basketball, and we want to give them a team they can be proud of,” Kelsey stated. “We’re just getting started.”

Looking Ahead

With the postseason fast approaching, Louisville has positioned itself as a legitimate contender for an NCAA Tournament bid—a goal that seemed out of reach just a year ago. As the Cardinals continue to improve, the excitement surrounding the program suggests that Kelsey’s first season is just the beginning of something special in Louisville.

For the fans who endured recent struggles, this season has been a welcome return to form, and the celebration is just getting started.

Pat Kelsey sends a strong three-word fiery message to the Louisville basketball’s team after their Cardinals 14th win…

Pat Kelsey has complete respect and faith in his “25-strong” and is a major reason why the Louisville basketball team has made such a spectacular turnaround.

The Louisville Cardinals made history Saturday afternoon, winning their 14th ACC game this season and 21st overall.

The Cardinals’ 14th win is now the second most ACC regular season wins in school history, and their 21 wins are 13 more than last year’s total, tying their program record for greatest turnaround in two seasons.

The Cardinals are headed by first-year head coach Pat Kelsey, who was just named a finalist for the Naismith Men’s College Coach of the Year Watch List. Kelsey has ignited the Louisville basketball program, and in his post-game news conference, he delivered a furious message.

Louisville Cardinals are flying at the perfect time, having won 15 of their previous 16 games and are now on a five-game winning run.

Pat Kelsey is receiving well-deserved media exposure, but when asked what it meant to him to be named a top 15 Coach of the Year, he was humble, but he also delivered a strong message to Cardinals fans that should give them chills.

“Our GA’s, our student managers, our strength coach, our trainer, our scout team point guard, they think, because I believe it, that in order for us to be great, they have to be the best in the country at what they do.” Pat Kelsey spoke about what makes this squad so historic. “It is that mindset, as well as my personnel, and the believe I have in them, the faith I place in them, the work they perform, and the perfection with which they conduct themselves on a daily basis. I feel that if everyone in the organisation acts in this manner, the outcomes will take care of themselves for the most of this year.

Yes, the 13 transfers help, and Chucky Hepburn is a good point guard, but Kelsey’s culture at Louisville is already having an impact on the Cardinals basketball team, as seen by his strong message.

“That is power of the unit.” Kelsey stated. “We’re pretty excellent, and clearly I’m the man at the podium you want to talk to, and they put me on a list or whatever. “It is the power of the unit.” Kelsey remarked as he aggressively tapped the table.

Pat Kelsey may be one of the most modest coaches in collegiate athletics, but his love and concern for his staff and squad is unparalleled. Kelsey has showed support for his whole crew, and he thanked them all again Saturday afternoon, referring to them as “25-strong”.

“It has a strength of 25. The student managers’ position and job, and I know you’re sick of hearing that from me, but it’s just as important, and it’s no more or less important than mine, and it’s everyone in that organisation smiling and doing their job.” Kelsey commented after the Cardinals’ 89-81 win.

Kelsey said numerous times that he desired the Naismith Men’s College Coach of the Year Watch List included the entire organisation rather than just his name. It is something Cardinals fans like hearing. It’s unsettling, since Kelsey’s message is a clear reason why they’ve had such a dramatic reversal this season.

“It’s a joke that I’m even on there with some of those names; are you kidding me?” What are their names? I’m not worried about it.” Kelsey remarked, increasing his voice into the microphone. “I offer all of the credit to the organization’s employees who put in their best effort every day, which is why we are successful. Period.”

Pat Kelsey praises not just his players and assistant coaches, but also his whole staff, which includes graduate assistants, student managers, and a scouting squad. One obvious reason for Louisville’s remarkable turnaround is a coach who has complete respect and faith in his “25-strong” squad.

The Cardinals have only four games remaining and are on the verge of making history, as one more win will secure the largest turnaround in club history and tie a program record for most ACC victories in a single season.

Is Pat Kelsey of the University of Louisville the National College Basketball Coach of the Year?

As of February 25, 2025, Pat Kelsey, the head coach of the University of Louisville men’s basketball team, has not been officially named the National College Basketball Coach of the Year. However, his remarkable achievements in his inaugural season have positioned him as a strong contender for this prestigious honor.

A Transformative Season for Louisville Basketball

When Pat Kelsey assumed the head coaching role at Louisville on March 28, 2024, he inherited a program that had faced significant challenges in recent years. The previous season concluded with an 8–24 record, including a dismal 3–17 mark in Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) play, leading to the dismissal of former head coach Kenny Payne. Kelsey’s appointment marked a new chapter for the Cardinals, bringing hope and a renewed sense of purpose to the team and its supporters.

Under Kelsey’s leadership, the 2024–25 Louisville Cardinals have experienced a dramatic turnaround. The team currently boasts a 21–6 overall record and a 14–2 record in ACC play, a stark contrast to their performance in the prior season. This remarkable improvement has not only revitalized the program but has also garnered national attention, with the Cardinals re-entering the Associated Press Top 25 rankings for the first time since 2021.

Key Factors in Louisville’s Resurgence

Several factors have contributed to Louisville’s impressive performance this season:

1. Strategic Recruitment and Player Development: Kelsey and his coaching staff undertook a comprehensive overhaul of the roster, bringing in 13 new players, including 12 transfers. This strategic recruitment infused the team with experienced talent, fostering a competitive and cohesive unit on the court.
2. Emphasis on Defense and Rebounding: The Cardinals have excelled in defensive play and rebounding, often dominating opponents in these critical aspects of the game. Their defensive prowess has been a cornerstone of their success, limiting opponents’ scoring opportunities and creating offensive transitions.
3. Strong Road Performance: Louisville has demonstrated resilience and composure in away games, securing 11 double-digit road victories, which leads the nation. Their ability to perform under pressure in hostile environments has been a testament to their mental toughness and preparation.

Recognition and Accolades

In light of these accomplishments, Pat Kelsey has been named to the 2025 Werner Ladder Naismith Men’s College Coach of the Year Watch List, an honor that highlights his impact and success in transforming the Louisville basketball program.

A Culture of Gratitude and Authenticity

Beyond the tangible improvements in performance, Kelsey has instilled a culture of gratitude and authenticity within the team. This cultural shift has fostered a supportive environment where players are encouraged to be their true selves, both on and off the court. A poignant example of this culture is the team’s support for fifth-year senior Terrence Edwards Jr., who, after witnessing the birth of his son, was met with an outpouring of love and support from his teammates upon rejoining the team for a game against Notre Dame.

Conclusion

While the official announcement of the National College Basketball Coach of the Year is yet to be made, Pat Kelsey’s transformative impact on the University of Louisville’s men’s basketball program has undeniably positioned him as a leading candidate for the honor. His strategic vision, emphasis on core basketball fundamentals, and commitment to fostering a positive team culture have not only revitalized the Cardinals but have also set a new standard of excellence within collegiate basketball.

Louisville basketball coach Pat Kelsey makes the watch list for the Naismith National Coach of the Year Award

Marina Johnson, Louisville Courier Journal

Pat Kelsey, the University of Louisville’s basketball coach, has been selected one of 15 coaches to watch for the Naismith National Coach of the Year Award.

Kelsey guided the Cardinals to a 20-6 record in his debut season as head coach.

Pat Kelsey, a basketball coach at the University of Louisville, has been recognised as one of the top candidates for the Naismith National Coach of the Year Award.

According to a Friday release, Kelsey is one of 15 coaches being nominated for the prize. The previous year’s winner was Dan Hurley, head coach of the University of Connecticut men’s basketball team.

Kelsey took over as head coach of the University of Louisville this season, succeeding Kenny Payne, and has led the team to an overall record of 20-6. In the previous two seasons, the Cardinals won only 12 regular-season games.

University of Louisville Where are former Louisville basketball head coaches and assistants?

The following coaches are also worth watching.

Greg Gard: Wisconsin

Dennis Gates of Missouri

Todd Golden: Florida

Penny Hardaway: Memphis.

Tom Izzo, Michigan State

Dusty May: Michigan

Grant McCasland, Texas Tech

Ben McCollum: Drake

Matt Painter: Purdue

Bruce Pearl, Auburn

Rick Pitino, St. John’s

Richard Pitino, New Mexico

Kelvin Sampson, Houston

Jonathan Scheyer: Duke

Louisville Wins Five Straight Games, Holding Off Florida State

The Cardinals also pull out the regular season sweep over the Seminoles.

Louisville, Kentucky After taking a couple more days off, the Louisville men’s basketball team resumed their play and managed to hold off Florida State long enough to win 89-81 in the KFC Yum! Centre on Saturday.

at addition to extending their winning run to five games, the Cardinals (21-6, 14-2 ACC) defeat the Seminoles (16-11, 7-9 ACC) 90-76 at Tallahassee to complete the regular season sweep.

It’s the first time Louisville has swept two ACC teams in the regular season since their 2017–18 campaign, when they did the same against Pitt and Virginia Tech. They also swept Virginia earlier this year.

It was by no means Louisville’s most effective game. They had more turnovers (13) than assists (10), shot 50%, and only made 7 of 21 three-pointers. Conversely, they let Florida State shoot 54.2 percent for the game, which is their highest percentage this season in a victory and the highest by an opponent since Kentucky shot 58.2 percent from the field.

The free throw line was the game’s main difference. FSU was 13 of 17 in the charity stripe, while Louisville hit an incredible 30-of-34. In addition, the Cardinals scored 17 points off turnovers compared to the Seminoles’ 7.

Typically a facilitator, Chucky Hepburn scored 29 points to lead Louisville in scoring. He also broke the school record for the most made free throws in a single game, going 17 of 19 at the line.

Three other Cardinals scored in double figures as well. Terrence Edwards Jr. contributed 16 points, Reyne Smith ended with 11 points, and J’Vonne Hadley recorded a double-double with 18 points and 11 rebounds. Jamir Watkins lead FSU with 23 points.

Louisville made a strong first impression. The Seminoles burned a timeout just 80 seconds into the game after Florida State missed their first four shots in addition to making two three-pointers in the opening minute.

By messing up the game on defence, the ‘Noles attempted to rally, but the Cardinals threw a kink in their own strategy. UofL held FSU to 12-of-26 from the floor and caused 12 turnovers for 15 points off of them in the first half alone.

Louisville maintained their composure during moments in the first half when their attacking flow faltered. They hit it 15-of-28 from the field and 5-of-12 on three-point tries, leading by as much as 20 points and carrying a 45-31 lead into halftime despite turning it over eight times during this time.

Momentum began to go in the opposite manner in the second half. While Florida State’s offence began to get into a groove, Louisville’s offence encountered some hiccups.

The Cardinals’ advantage was reduced to eight points by four turnovers in the opening four minutes, and it was reduced to as little as six points with less than nine minutes remaining due to a 0-for-5 cold streak following a 6-of-8 shooting start to the quarter.

The Cardinals were able to dig deep and deliver a counterpunch after the Seminoles placed them on the ropes. With little over four minutes remaining, they pulled off a 13–4 run to increase their advantage back to 15 points.

With 1:35 remaining, FSU managed to put together a quick 9-0 run to go within six, but UofL did just enough to keep their guests at bay. Twenty second-half free throws proved to be the difference, even though Louisville only shot 11 for 24 in the second half compared to Florida State’s 20 for 33.

Next up, Louisville travels to Blacksburg to play Virginia Tech, their last road trip of the season. Tuesday, February 25 at 9:00 p.m. EST is the planned tip-off time versus the Hokies.

MCGAVIC MATTHEW

McGavic is a native of the Derby City and a 2016 graduate of the University of Louisville’s Sport Administration program. Since 2017, he has covered the Cardinals in a variety of roles, including a brief stint covering Georgia Tech in Atlanta, Georgia. Plus, he co-hosts the State of Louisville network’s ‘From The Pink Seats’ podcast. Dog enthusiast, video gamer, and bourbon drinker. His Twitter handle is @Matt_McGavic.