Saints Predicted to Make Massive Trade for Alvin Kamara Replacement.

Below is a detailed examination of the Saints’ rumored blockbuster move to replace Alvin Kamara, organized into key sections for clarity.

A robust mock‐draft scenario from Fox Sports analyst Henry McKenna envisions New Orleans packaging multiple assets to move up from No. 9 to No. 5 overall and draft Boise State’s star RB Ashton Jeanty, viewed as a “perfect match” for new Saints OC Kellen Moore’s scheme .
At 29 years old (turning 30 in July), Alvin Kamara remains one of the league’s premier dual‑threat backs—five Pro Bowl nods and two Second‑Team All‑Pro honors underscore his résumé .
However, age and heavy usage (1,543 career carries) loom large, and Kamara is under contract only through 2026 on a modest two‑year, $24.5 million extension .
Targeting Jeanty would give New Orleans three more years of cost‑controlled rookie deal value—crucial in a cap‑constrained backfield .

Background on Alvin Kamara and the Saints’ Backfield

Kamara’s Career and Contract Status

Alvin Kamara burst onto the scene as the 2017 Offensive Rookie of the Year and has since amassed over 6,700 rushing yards and 4,700 receiving yards in eight seasons .
His five Pro Bowl selections and two Second‑Team All‑Pro honors reflect elite productivity as both a runner and receiver .
Despite a still‑productive 2024 campaign (228 carries for 950 yards, six TDs; 68 receptions for 543 yards, two TDs), wear and tear threaten long‑term efficiency .
Contracted through 2026 via a two‑year, $24.5 million deal, Kamara carries a cap hit north of $11 million in 2025—heavy for a back past 30 .

The Rationale for Moving On

NFL backs face steep production declines after age 30, especially under creative usage like the Saints’ .
Trading up and drafting a franchise back on a rookie contract could save $5–8 million annually against cap space and inject youth into New Orleans’ offense.

Kellen Moore’s Offensive Vision

From Barkley to Jeanty

New Saints coach Kellen Moore helped reshape the Eagles’ offense around Saquon Barkley, turning him into a focal point of both run and pass schemes .
Moore’s system values contact‑balance runners with receiving chops—traits at which Jeanty excels.

Why a Three‑Down Back Matters

Under Moore, true three‑down backs are rare but impactful—capable of sustaining drives on inside runs, creating mismatches out of the backfield, and pass‑protecting.

Ashton Jeanty: Profile of Kamara’s Successor

Elite Collegiate Production

– Rushing prowess: Jeanty amassed 2,601 rushing yards in 2024, the second‑most single‑season total in FBS history, with 29 TDs .
– All‑purpose threat: Added 138 receiving yards and blocked effectively, earning unanimous All‑American honors and Doak Walker/Maxwell Awards .
– Durability & contact: Forced 164 missed tackles and averaged 185.8 rushing yards per game, showcasing elite physicality .

Fit with the Saints

At 5′8″, 211 lbs, Jeanty’s compact build and power make him ideal for inside zone and power‑gap runs. His pass‑catching ability matches Moore’s West Coast inclinations .

The Trade Scenario

McKenna’s Mock Trade

In his Fox Sports mock, Henry McKenna projects New Orleans trading pick 9 plus future assets to Jacksonville for pick 5, then selecting Jeanty .
Though the precise package is unspecified, moving from 9 to 5 historically costs a mid‑first and additional mid‑round pick (per classic Jimmy Johnson chart values)—roughly 400 extra points of draft capital .

Draft Value Considerations

– Pick 5 value: ~1,700 points
– Pick 9 value: ~1,350 points
– Additional cost: ~350 points (equivalent to a top‑50 pick in 2025) .

Benefits for the Saints

Youth and Cost Control

Jeanty’s rookie deal (2025–2028) would carry a cap hit under $2 million per season, freeing resources for free agents.
Locking in a top‑five RB could anchor the offense during Derek Carr’s remaining contract years and beyond.

Off‑Field Value

A high‑profile rookie running back energizes the fan base, boosts media attention, and reinforces the Saints’ commitment to winning.

Risks and Alternatives

Positional Volatility

Only 30 % of first‑round backs reach a second contract in the NFL—injury and age risk loom large .
Alternative targets at pick 9: Alabama’s Jahmyr Gibbs (top receiving back), UCLA’s Zach Charbonnet (power rusher) .

Free‑Agent Options

Veterans like James Cook or Mike Davis could be signed on one‑year prove‑it deals at lower cost.

Perspective from Jacksonville

Why Trade Down?

Jacksonville, with the No. 5 pick and a growing roster, might accumulate more picks by trading back to No. 9, then bolstering multiple positions.
The Jaguars already hold solid RB talent (Travis Etienne) and could leverage draft capital for secondary help.

Conclusion

A move to draft Ashton Jeanty would represent a bold pivot for the Saints—trading cap‑heavy veteran Alvin Kamara for a cost‑controlled rookie with elite upside. Under Kellen Moore’s tutelage, Jeanty’s explosive profile aligns perfectly with New Orleans’ envisioned offense. Yet, the gamble on a first‑round running back is fraught with risk, and the price to trade up is steep. Ultimately, this potential blockbuster underscores the Saints’ willingness to invest heavily in youth—betting that Jeanty can carry the backfield torch long after Kamara’s prime has faded.